LAK AT 14: A TREE GROWS IN LOS ANGELES

LOS ANGELES, CA — The 8-3-3 start to the Los Angeles Kings’ NHL 2023-24 campaign is their best since the 2017-18 season when a John Stevens-led squad got off to a 10-2-2 start. That Stevens team finished fourth in the Pacific Division with 98 points but the first-round, four-game sweep at the hands of the Vegas Golden Knights officially closed the organization’s first championship window.

Stevens was dismissed just 13 games into the following season and the spiral down the standings set the stage for a rebuild that accompanies winning it all. The rebuild was slow to start but resulted in 99- and 104-point seasons that past two seasons, respectively, and gave General Manager Rob Blake the lead time to build a roster that’s poised to win playoff rounds.

That’s no small feat given Los Angeles hasn’t won a playoff round since their second Stanley Cup winning season.

With the Kings safely nestled inside the Pacific’s top three with the Vegas Golden Knights (no surprise) and Vancouver Canucks (surprise) and the expectation to compete for their first Pacific Division title, one would think there is little to critique about the team’s performance in the season’s first month. There have been strong starts from Trevor Moore, Carl Grundstrom and Cam Talbot, with Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty refusing to show regression in their games, but there’s multiple areas of improvement needed as the season progresses.

When the Kings walked out of T-Mobile Arena last Wednesday with a complete 60-minute performance in a 4-1 victory, it was the type of victory that should have been a platform to elevate from, an effort that could have been an impetus to build on their winning ways. They had dropped a hard-fought 4-3 shootout decision to the Champs 11 days prior and this game’s triumph over the champs, despite it being very early in the season, looked to be another step towards serious Stanley Cup contention.

Though they showcased what they can accomplish when at their best, the two subsequent home efforts against mediocre teams, which sends them off on a mini bye (four days without games, two days without practice), created a sense of uneasiness as they attempt to answer questions about underperforming areas.

I think of it as a growing Tree of Concern.

To be clear, the Kings won’t see a giant oak tree of concern at center ice when they return to downtown LA on Thursday against a suddenly hot Florida Panthers group, but there’s a few saplings along the boards and some weeds in the corners of the rink.

If coach Todd McLellan and his charges want to get their ice garden in order, here’s what needs to be whacked:

THE HOME RECORD

This section should be titled, “The Awful Home Record” and it’s a big surprise coming off last season’s home record of 26-11-4. The 1-3-3 record fashioned in front of the paying LA patrons has been mitigated by the historic 7-0-0 road start. While acknowledging the degree of difficulty of the home slate to start the season (Colorado, Carolina, Boston, and Vegas won’t be in contention for the first-overall pick), they’ve surrendered 28 goals in seven games and generally have not made a winning play when the game is hanging in the balance.

How to fix it? Who knows. Maybe a higher sense of urgency to set the tone early in games, maybe Blake should house his team at the JW Marriott across the street from the arena until they reverse course. With more winnable games through the end of the month, if the Kings don’t improve at home, it will undo their great road start.

PHEONIX RE-RISING

It was almost a year ago when the unheralded Pheonix Copley was recalled as the Kings were struggling to find consistent goaltending from the now-departed Jonathan Quick and Cal Petersen. Manning the Los Angeles crease with no expectations, his performance was a significant factor in steadying the listing ship between the pipes and arguably saved the season. While the organization wasn’t confident enough to let him ride as the No.1 goaltender down the stretch and in the playoffs (that job was handed to another departed goaltender, Joonas Korpisalo) Copley had done enough to earn a $1.5 million extension for this season. He was teamed with Cam Talbot, who also was given a one-year deal with the thinking that if Pheonix could register similar numbers to last season (2.64 GAA, .904 save percentage), it would be good enough as Blake figures out the team’s long-term goaltending strategy.

Ironically, Talbot is the one who been the Phoenix this season – he’s risen from the ashes of an injury-plagued season to quiet the critics with a strong start (7-3-1, 2.21 GAA and .923 save percentage) while his teammate’s performance resembles the level of play of his predecessors that opened the door for him in the first place. In fairness, the Kings have earned points in three of his four starts, but they’ve done so by scoring in bunches.

At 31 years old and possibly playing for his NHL future, Copley hasn’t started the season as the cool, confident customer who joined the team with no fanfare and little to lose. With the stakes dialed up for everyone in the organization, Copley needs to work on the technical (getting beat on two wraparounds in the overtime loss is something rarely seen) as well as the mental part of his game. At this juncture, he needs to concern himself with giving his team 20 to 25 quality starts in support of Talbot because at 36 years old, it’s unknown what Talbot can produce with a projected workload of close to 60 starts. While Cam has carried a workload in the range of 60 starts at points in his career, it was when he was a much younger man in his first go-around with McLellan during their Edmonton days.

Copley must ignore the ugly numbers next to his name (4.58 GAA, .782 save percentage) with the knowledge that his leash is getting shorter. Veteran Dave Rittich is in reserve with the AHL Ontario Reign and the possibility of Blake taking an early look in the trade market isn’t out of character, though the team’s cap situation limits options there. Maybe the focus should be on what he’s done best in his NHL career – winning games – he’s only lost 15 games in regulation over 65 starts. Of all the players on the roster, the four days off may be most beneficial to him.

NO BANG FOR THE BIG BUCKS

Kevin Fiala is a point-a-game player through 14 games, a similar pace to his 72 points in 69 games output of last season. Fiala is also turning into McLellan’s problem child with his high-risk, high-reward style that has brought diminishing returns of late. That style was something McLellan lived with, given it galvanized an offense that has struggled to score throughout the coach’s tenure in LA. Kevin’s approach to the game is starting to outweigh his offensive gifts but to the player’s credit, he’s owned the deficiencies in his game and hasn’t hidden from the media by admitting his recent efforts haven’t been good enough. Fiala will never be in the running for the Selke Trophy (awarded to the NHL’s best defensive forward), but McLellan’s comments after the uninspired loss to the Flyers might see the 17 minutes of ice time he averages start to diminish.

“It didn’t work for (Kevin) on the powerplay, and he just skated from the corner to the bench. Woe is me. That’s not going to work... you just dig yourself deeper,” McLellan said. “We can’t have that attitude.”

The strength of this team, its depth at the center position, has mitigated the underwhelming start for PL Dubois. The criticism of Dubois upon his arrival in Los Angeles was that the big center disappears at times, and he’s lived up to it. He was an impact player in his return to Winnipeg and the following game in Minnesota but with one goal in his last nine games and a reduction in his ice time over the past four games, he’s behind the expected 60-point pace needed to be the number two center behind Kopitar.

Dubois doesn’t have the pressure of playing for a contract, rather his pressure is living up to the $8.5 million cap hit attached to him until 2031. You can chalk about some of his performance to adapting to a new team and system combined with figuring out chemistry with the unpredictable Fiala (resolved temporarily by McLellan by moving Fiala alongside the dependable duo of Moore and Danault) but the team isn’t getting enough for the pair’s $16M+ cap hit.

As for how to fix it, with both Fiala and Dubois having exceptionally long contract leashes (Fiala signed through 2029), patience is a virtue. In the short term, could Fiala, who was called out by McLellan publicly (something he rarely does with individual players), regress to the point where he’s grabbing a seat in the press box? I don’t see that occurring, a move like that would be a course of last resort and it’s clear the coach now has the player’s attention.

Fiala’s gifts can quickly turn a bad streak into a hot one and perhaps the four days without a game will reset his approach. Dubois isn’t alone as a player struggling in the first year of a big trade and extension and has the cover of the strong play of the other centers (including Blake Lizotte, who got high praise from his coach for the play of his line – with Grundstrom and Trevor Lewis – “they are money, you can count on them night after night to get the job done”) so while easing into his role isn’t optimal, the thinking is that he will return to his historical level of play.

It might seem that these areas of opportunities would be present on a team which started the season 3-8-3 not 8-3-3. There’s still plenty to like about this team when they’re playing connected hockey and with defense is not thought to be its strong suit, they allow the least amount of high danger chances in the NHL and are in the top 10 in goals against. I think of these needed improvements as early season course corrections, not season tipping points.

RANDOM NOTES

Asked McLellan about the rumored rule changes to the NHL 3-on-3 overtime – one is a shot clock, the other is not allowing the offensive team to leave the attacking zone once they cross the opposition’s blue line:

“We keep trying to change the game and change the game and change the game. We play for five minutes. Players are smart, they adapt to situations, so they hold on to the puck a little bit longer, but we only do it for five minutes. The best players in the world end up on the ice. They can control the puck as long as they want. They ... try to take advantage of other team’s mistakes. In my opinion, I don’t think they need any help doing that. They’re pretty good at it.  What we didn’t know when overtime started, we didn’t figure all these things out. It doesn’t matter what we do, they’re gonna figure it out. They’re really smart people, those players.”

Viktor Arvidsson hasn’t been seen since injuring his back in preseason and undergoing surgery. A key missing cog to the powerplay that regressed from dangerous to average (25.3 to 18.6 percent conversion rate, McLellan gave a quick status update:

“I see him walking around the rink, smiling, so that’s a real positive,” he said. “I think he’s taking more on as far as his therapy goes, but I can tell you we haven’t even discussed putting him on the ice.”

It wouldn’t be a shock to see Jaret Anderson-Dolan get into a game soon. He’s appeared in only one game this season and has been a scratch for Los Angeles’ last dozen games. He’s lost his spot in the lineup with the return of Lewis and the strong camp but in by Alex Laferriere but with the latter’s production waning (no goals, one assist in his last six games), the versatile forward may be surrendering his press box seat.