LAK OPENING NIGHT: IT’S TRICKY

LOS ANGELES, CA — As the Los Angeles Kings commence the National Hockey League’s 106th season, the organization’s mindset is not only to snap the nine-season streak without a playoff round victory but to ascend to legitimate Stanley Cup contender status.

The raised expectations come through the work that General Manager Rob Blake completed in the offseason. He thinned the herd on their right defense depth chart, moving out the Seans – Durzi and Walker – to make room for younger defenceman while bringing back a key performer, Vladislav Gavrikov, on the left side.

Pierre-Luc Dubois was the big fish that was reeled in, a pursuit that was reignited from his Columbus days when the Winnipeg Jets came to the realization that Manitoba was not in the long-term plans of the 25-year-old center. While the price was costly – three regulars departing from a 104-point team, it gives the Kings as formidable center depth with Anze Kopitar, Phillip Danault and Blake Lizotte, a requirement for contender status. Blake and team president Luc Robitaille – both entering their fifth season at the helm of the team – are embracing the lofty goals for this season’s model.

“The expectations are there ... we’re in a bucket of eight to 10 teams that can win a championship. The goal isn’t to win a playoff round, we’re trying to win a Stanley Cup,” said Robitaille prior to the team’s highly publicized Australian trip.

Blake concurred during his Tuesday media availability but admits players like Quinton Byfield and Arthur Kaliyev need to emerge for a deep playoff run.

“I think we have a number of positions that we need to be average to above average while playing a lot,” Blake said. “I think we're built that way. We need a combination of everything from the goalies to the defense to the forwards, the penalty kill and power play, but the pieces are there that if they (emerge) there will be success.”

While the mission is clear, the road to get there – at least for the start of the season – is muddy.

By spending to the cap and losing Kaliyev to suspension for the first two regular-season games for an ill-advised knee-to-knee hit on Anaheim’s Chase DeLeo, the Kings will start the season shorthanded. And though Byfield and Kaliyev’s spots on the depth chart are secure, both face a pivotal season.

Byfield’s lack of goal scoring has been well documented and though other parts of his game fit well (I’ve heard it enough to consider giving him the nickname “little things”) with Kopitar and Kempe, he must find the back of the net this season to continue in his featured spot. Kaliyev “shoot first, ask questions later” is always welcomed and his goal production in limited ice time suggests he can move up in the lineup, but he must show growth in his decision making and defensive play to become a legitimate top-six winger.

But even when Kaliyev returns, the reality is Los Angeles will experience few nights when they carry the roster maximum 23 players. The expected salary cap gymnastics look to be so challenging that their capologist Josh Goldberg could be their early season MVP and I’m wondering if gymnast Simone Biles should be brought in as a consultant. But with half the teams in the NHL within $ 1 million of the salary cap ceiling, Los Angeles will be far from the only navigator in the tricky salary cap waters.

As for the players that hit the ice starting tonight against the Avalanche, there’s been no drama during training camp – the decision to keep David Rittich through Tuesday wasn’t what I call nail-biting – although the fact that both Jordan Spence and Brandt Clarke will start the season in the American Hockey League (Spence was solid in training camp and a casualty of the need to protect non-waiver exempt defensemen, Clarke still needs some seasoning) comes as a bit of a surprise given the aforementioned defenseman who were dealt away.

Along the forward wall and assuming the lower-body injury that Arvidsson incurred during Monday’s practice is not serious, the Los Angeles top nine will give opposing defenses major challenges.

Kopitar has not regressed and looks to repeat a solid season and alongside him Kempe has not only emerged as a dangerous goal scorer but a team leader. Danault’s line will be cerebral, consistent and will be called upon to be the “stopper” line late in games. When Dubois and Kevin Fiala get more playing time under their belts, they have the potential to be most explosive and productive grouping of the top three lines. The fourth line will have a different look with old friend Trevor Lewis returning to team with Lizotte (a very solid fit as 4C) and the quietly productive Carl Grundstrom, the type of role players needed for the bottom of the order.

Along the blueline, while not possessing the depth comparable to the champion Golden Knights, only the New Jersey Devils surrendered less high danger chances during the 2022-23 regular season (credit: Natural Stat Trick). The top four is solid if unspectacular – Drew Doughty, while no longer in the Norris conversation, is still a minutes eater and had his best offensive season since his career-best 60-point 2017-18 season. Both Matt Roy and Mikey Anderson have emerged as 20 minutes a night defenseman while Gavrikov has fit like a glove since Day 1 in LA. The third pair is in flux due to the cap constraints and looks to an area that needs the “average to above average” play that Blake noted.

Los Angeles may need to reprise their high danger chances effectiveness this season given the state of the goaltending, the biggest area of uncertainty for a team that considers itself a championship contender. They will start the season with Cam Talbot and Pheonix Copley between the pipes and with the expectation that the offense may improve on its Top-10 ranking, Los Angeles doesn’t need the tandem to compete for the Jennings Trophy, but they do need their combined effort to be in the neighborhood of last season’s league average save percentage of .904.

In comparison to last season, the duo of Jonathan Quick and Cal Petersen posted an .887 save percentage in the first 20 games that led to an 11-8-1 record. With an improving Pacific Division (Edmonton is the odds-on favorite, Vegas appears to be primed to defend its title, the foul air has lifted in Calgary and Seattle will continue to be pesky), the luxury of a mediocre start likely isn’t available. What Los Angeles needs from this year’s model of netminding is not the impossible save but the possible one, stopping the low and medium danger chances that got through Quick and Petersen and forced Blake’s hand to move Copley up from the AHL and eventually bring in Joonas Korpisalo at the trade deadline. In the team’s biggest area of uncertainty, one thing is certain – this will be the last season in which the combined cap hit for the goaltenders will be $2.5 million.

SEASON 18 FOR THE CAPTAIN

With no fanfare, Kings captain Anze Kopitar agreed to a two-year contract extension over the summer. Though he still plays at an elite level, the captain agreed to a hometown discount of $7 million per season for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons. Kopitar continues to be a known quantity at 36 years old and this season will see him reach multiple milestones as he continues his Hall of Fame career.

On tap over the next 82 games:

• 400 goals (he enters the season fourth in franchise history with 393)

• He will surpass Dustin Brown for most games played in franchise history (1,297) on October 21 at home against the Boston Bruins.

• He is 14 points away from passing Luc Robitaille for second in franchise scoring (opens with 1,141 points)

• Second to Robitaille in game-winning goals and fourth in powerplay goals (behind Robitaille, Marcel Dionne and Dave Taylor)

Covering Anze for the entirety of his career, I know he possesses a strong sense of pride in these accomplishments but what really resonates with him is achieving these heights as a native of Slovenia, a small European country most Kings fans never heard of before his arrival before the 2006-07 season.

But the sole focus on numbers this season for him will be the “W” column alongside the Kings name in the Pacific Division standings.

PREDICTION

Los Angeles should contend for their first Pacific Division title in franchise history and have the potential to eclipse the team record of 105 standings points (it’s interesting to note the record was set in the 1974-75 season where they record 21(!) ties in 80 games). With the salary cap challenges, team health will be a major factor in the season’s destiny, possibly a bigger factor than the goaltending. But even if they land on top of the Pacific and establish team records, nothing more than a divisional title will be a disappointment. Even with Dubois adding size in the middle, there is little physicality along the forward wall and the defense lacks the size that championship teams like Vegas and Tampa Bay have had along the blueline. 

The size and physicality issues won’t allow Los Angeles to grind out games, they will win them with skill and quickness. Winning games 4-3 instead of 3-2 will be necessary and entertaining for the fans but will that be good enough to win at Game 83?

My call is a mixed bag – a slight regular-season improvement to 106 points and a move to second place in the Pacific Division – and the same for the postseason. The Kings will win a playoff round for the first time since winning the Stanley Cup in 2014 but will be eliminated in the second-round.

At season start, it’s reasonable to consider Los Angeles a contender but a dark horse when it comes to capturing their third Stanley Cup.

Let the games begin, see you at the rink.