LAK 6 PACK: ALL THE KINGS HORSES

LOS ANGELES, CA — How much does one learn from a six-game sample of an 82-game season?

The Los Angeles Kings completed a rugged opening half-dozen game schedule with a 3-2-1 record after a 6-3 win in the first game of a home-and-home series with the Arizona Coyotes on Tuesday. The Coyotes game marked the first time this season Los Angeles played a non-playoff qualifier from last season. Given the Colorado Avalanche, Carolina Hurricanes and Boston Bruins were among the teams who welcomed them into the new season, seven points in six games is a reasonable and expected start.

Only registering one point at home against three legitimate Stanley Cup contenders (though Carolina has been stunningly poor defensively, its strength) isn’t optimal but it also doesn’t mean the Kings aren’t in the class of the teams that handed them three home defeats. Using statistics from Natural Stat Trick, the Kings are the clearcut leader in yielding high danger chances – only 27 through six games, 13 ahead of the second place Devils (who’ve played one less game) – an early indication that the 1-3-1 defense Coach Todd McLellan has installed is accomplishing its goal. Additionally, the change in scheme and personnel (Trevor Lewis for the traded Rasmus Kupari) on the penalty kill has resulted in a nice bump in effectiveness.

While the good news is that the defensive structure is statistically working, individual mistakes have cost them (McLellan offered this week that five goals have been surrendered due to “stupidity”) at pivotal times, not surprising given the offensive-minded way the team has played in the first two weeks.

Even with the loss of winger Viktor Arvidsson – his absence (which is larger than most believe) is most noticeable on the powerplay where he was both a playmaker and shotmaker (10 PPG last season) – this team has the potential to be best offensive team I’ve seen in the two decades I’ve covered the team.

While the Kings top-nine can hurt you in different ways (the new stick Trevor Moore is using appears to have a lot of goals in it, Anze Kopitar adding a one-timer to his arsenal in his 18th season), the Los Angeles “fourth line” of Blake Lizotte, Lewis and Carl Grundstrom have combined for six goals, an unexpected contribution fashioned by an unsustainable 31.6 shooting percentage.  The line’s early contribution has been helpful as Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala round into goal scoring shape and the uncertainty as to how many goals the youthful trio of Quinton Byfield, Arthur Kaliyev and Alex Laferriere will contribute.

The potential high-powered offense will be needed until there’s more connected play in the defensive zone.

Despite being stingy when it comes to high danger chances, Los Angeles is in the bottom 10 in goals against. They’ve needed the offense to get in the win column because the goaltending so far has not eliminated the substantial question mark that is attached to this facet of their game. The duo of Cam Talbot and Pheonix Copley have enjoyed run support to get their wins – their combined .874 save percentage is below the league average of .899 and the .714 mark on high danger chances at 5-on-5 is the third worst (in comparison – Boston has .900 save percentage on HD chances) gives plenty of room for improvement.

The misalignment between the defensive metrics and goaltending performance needs to be corrected over the coming weeks.

Or does it?

After the Arizona win, I asked McLellan if his team is capable of winning low scoring games, those 3-2 and 2-1 results that was the hallmark of the Darryl Sutter era. While Talbot and Copley have won games (Copley set a franchise mark, requiring the fewest appearances to reach the 25-win mark – 25-6-4 in 39 games – by a Kings goaltender), neither is going to get Vezina votes at season’s end and without some marginal improvement, there will be more pressure on the offense to remain among the best in the NHL.

“We’re capable of (winning low scoring games),” McLellan said. “I don’t think we’re going to score 5 or 6 goals a night... there are going to have to be 2-1 and 1-0 wins at some point. But we’re still trying to figure our game out, so we’ll take the offense to support the mistakes that we’re making to put wins in the column.”

As the team attempts to find the balance between its offensive and defensive posture, I’m reminded of nursery rhyme, Humpty Dumpty. The reference to the rhyme in context of sports usually comes when a team’s fate has gone off the rails, the inability to put Mr. Dumpty back together despite having ample resources.

My use of the rhyme is different when it comes to the identity of this team in the season’s early days.

As someone who dabbles in racehorse ownership, I know that no matter how good the jockey may be, it’s ultimately the horse that wins the race. Different horses win different races (trotters vs. thoroughbreds, sprinters vs. distance, turf vs. dirt) and given this is as talented a team as the Kings have had in quite awhile, should the jockey loosen the reigns and let the horse run full bore and opposed to try reigning him in?

If you’ve watched other Pacific teams, there is a danger in letting your horse all-out like the Edmonton Oilers, but it seems there’s equal risk in the results Calgary is getting with its puck possession and lack of finishing style. This Los Angeles roster is finally at a point where chances can be traded and win games, it’s no longer a one-line team with a questionable middle-six and no punch from its fourth line. Teams now game plan to stop the Los Angeles offense and as McLellan noted that there have been times as the Los Angeles bench boss, he’s been really concerned about scoring but he’s not at that point for the moment.

In late-October and with all of six games under their belt, the Kings seem far more comfortable and better suited winning games 5-3 than 2-1 and the way the game has evolved, while the intensity of the post season raises the game to a different level, it’s no longer “shut them down and win” past Game 82. The Vegas Golden Knights scored four or more goals in three of their Final victories against the Florida Panthers with a giant nine-goal exclamation point in the Game 5 clincher.

There’s risk in the up-tempo game as the team’s 14.7% shooting percentage through Tuesday’s game isn’t sustainable (Edmonton led the 2022-23 regular season with an 11.8 percentage) but pressing the issue, keeping their opponents on their heels for 60 minutes may be the new path to victory.

Even if the goaltending tandem gets to the league average, for the time being the Kings should play to their strength.

Let the horses run.