TAKING STOCK IN L.A.

LOS ANGELES, CA -- In a year that is anything but normal, the usual gap between the NHL Draft and Free Agency would allow for a separate analysis for each. But with everything different in 2020, the small window between the two off-season events allows for one all-encompassing look at the off-season moves made by the Los Angeles Kings.

In sequential order, my thoughts of the body of work:

THE DRAFT

L.A. was set up to win and Director of Amateur Scouting Mark Yannetti and crew hung a ‘W’ in El Segundo.

A no-brainer with Quinton Byfield at 2 and a mix for forwards and defensemen from Rounds 2-7. Outside of Byfield, the most impressive move was the pick they didn’t make, the one – 60th overall -- they used to acquire Lias Andersson from the New York Rangers.

The 21-year-old Swede, drafted seventh-overall in 2017, could never find traction on Broadway despite having all the tools to succeed. Coming to Madison Square Garden with plenty of fanfare, he went from featured-prospect to fourth liner to Hartford and eventually home to his native Sweden. Throw out the ugly numbers of his NHL infancy, he will be a motivated player upon his return to North America and adds to a now very crowded organizational depth chart at the center position.

I would have liked to see what would have been with pick 35 if the Buffalo Sabres didn’t cut the line to take Germany’s JJ. Peterka (the obvious AEG-Berlin connection). Both second-round defenders (Helse Grans and Brock Faber) are at least two seasons away from an NHL debut, but more than one the draft guru pegged Grans as a first-round selection.

And a few words on “draft gurus” as it relates to L.A. regarding the Byfield pick and the incredibly difficult task of producing a first-round mock draft.

THROWING DARTS

If you listen to Kings Of The Podcast with me and The Mayor John Hoven you heard very little mention of Tim Stutzle being selected at 2. While we said nothing had been decided over the past few weeks, all indications pointed towards the selection of the Sudbury center, who has drawn comparisons to L.A.’s own Anze Kopitar, Pittsburgh’s Geno Malkin or Buffalo’s Eric Staal. This was done with the backdrop of Twitter responses saying there was increased chatter that the Kings were leaning towards Stutzle as the days drew closer to this past Tuesday.

The very inexact science of predicting the future of 17 and 18-year-olds is difficult enough, trying to be an expert on the needs of all 31 teams and their mindset on Draft Day makes a successful mock draft percentage the equivalent to an above-average MLB hitter (batting average .300 – 3 out of 10). I did a deep dive on the first-round picks of 10 different experts/draft services (they will remain nameless, but you can figure it out).

The good news is all 10 got the first overall pick correct (shocking, yes) but from there it’s not a pretty picture. Extracting the Lafreniere Layup and staying inside the top 5, 6 of 10 got Byfield correct, no one got Raymond at 4 (our Dave Pagnotta did, in June) and none of the group were correct on more than one-third of their selections from picks 2-10. At the bottom of the first round, well, suffice to say if you go into the mock draft business it might be wise to limit yours to the top 15.

From picks 16 to 31 and extracting the three trades in the first round that changed the selecting team (picks 19, 22 and 24), only one 1 of the 120 projected picks were correct (I’ll name that one - TSN’s Craig Button nailed Tyson Forester to the Flyers).

This is not to disrespect the time spent or the knowledge of the people that have made the NHL Draft their specialty but a reminder of how difficult it is to predict anything when it comes to sports.

LACK OF FRENZY

The Kings have become hockey’s version of the Tampa Bay Rays by relying on scouting and development and playing small ball on the road back to contention. They are the antithesis of their L.A. baseball cousins, the Dodgers, who take big swings in pursuit of a title. Given that neither baseball team’s approach has culminated in a World Series win, it’s not disparaging to equate the Kings to the Rays but it’s a reminder that they are not the equivalent of the NHL entry from the 813, the champion Lightning.

Yes, there is a matter of $11 million of dead cap space Blake pointed to as the obstacle to taking a big swing, but a reminder a big chunk of that space was created by the whiff he took on Ilya Kovalchuk. But given the depth of the prospect pool and still in possession of its own picks and additional second and third round picks in 2021, he needs to step up to the plate soon and take a swing like the Dodgers took to bring Mookie Betts to Los Angeles. A swing that took trading their first and third best prospects (Alex Verdugo and Jeter Downs) to bring one of the best players in the game to try to win that elusive championship.

Blake’s on the record saying that the forward depth chart will essentially look the same as it did when play ended for his team in March. The team was red-hot when the league stopped (a season-high seven game winning streak), but unless there is significant progression by the current forwards and an emerging performance by a youngster, it’s the same cast of characters that produced the 30th ranked offense over 70 games.

It’s tough to see how this team will be playing games of consequence after the 2021 trade deadline without either a significant improvement from the current roster (with most not having a track record of scoring), an emerging performance by a youngster (which looks unlikely having set the expectations of little roster movement) or an addition of a significant offensive forward (which appears to be 12 months away). Blake had previously stated this coming season would be an evaluation of its young talent to determine what level the prospects would slot in, but if the roster is in intact especially along the forward wall, how do you evaluate them? In the AHL? In the OHL?

The Blake’s explanation of not wading into the free agent waters is curious. While the dead cap space is usually a reasonable reason to defer in making a major off-season move, that is an obstacle for a team with insufficient cap room. Los Angeles is not that team – including the buyout of Dion Phaneuf and the contract terminations of Mike Richards and Kovalchuk, they are $13.6 million under the cap courtesy of our friends at Cap Friendly, so it’s fair to say that for the moment there is an internal budget for this team.

In an austere financial environment that’s been caused by COVID-19, it’s totally understandable that ownership would hold the line on spending for players (including getting salary retention for the only significant move – the Olli Maatta trade) and validated by the fact that Los Angeles has the third lowest combined cap hit for its roster forwards (a shade under $31 million -- only Detroit and Ottawa have less dollars committed to forwards, per Cap Friendly) sets the stage for an intriguing start of the 2021 season. You should be as curious as me to see what the opening night roster looks like.

MEDIUM SHAKE

I’ve been very fortunate to get beaucoup exposure on the airwaves this long season – we’ve been on the air for over a full year with no breaks. In addition to my regular stops with the TSN Radio outlets in Montreal and Winnipeg, I got a lot more ice time on SiriusXM NHL Network Radio. In addition to the 2 two hours of Saturday fun with Dave Pagnotta and Ryan Paton on Hot Stove, the weekday team (Peter Berce, Bruce Bolton, Steve Kouleas and Mick Kern) put me in regular rotation on The Power Play to close the season as I take a well-deserved rest for a few weeks to recharge the batteries.

Against that backdrop, the project known as Kings Of The Podcast that I co-host with The Mayor John Hoven is quickly closing in on 100,000 listens this year, a stunning number gained through hard work, hustle and most importantly chemistry with The Mayor. I think it’s impossible to create chemistry, you either have it or you don’t and thankfully we are at the salary cap when it comes to that asset. We’ll likely crank out some more as the season approaches and are grateful for the incredible support from the listeners.