jUNE 27, 2020 | 10:28am ET
BY DAVID PAGNOTTA, The Fourth Period

DRAFT LOTTERY DRAMA AND MY OPENING MOCK DRAFT

 
header_lottery2020.jpg
 

TORONTO, ON -- The NHL was hoping to only conduct one NHL Draft Lottery, but the balls had other ideas and the recipient of the 2020 first-overall selection will now be determined in August.

You could almost see it on NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly’s face right before he flipped the card over to reveal a mystery team from the qualifying round will own the No.1 pick.

While it’s yet to be finalized, it appears the qualifying round will begin on July 30 and span a maximum of 10 days, upon which a second lottery will take place, giving all eight teams eliminated an equal 12.5% chance of winning the lottery and selecting first-overall.

To say this shocked the hockey world would be an understatement. Once it was revealed the Los Angeles Kings were in the top-two, I thought there was no doubt they landed the top pick. The storylines wrote themselves: a left winger from Quebec, Alexis Lafreniere, coming to L.A. to join a team run by one of the best left wingers of all-time, Luc Robitaille, also from Quebec, both standing at 6’1 with similar builds. It was perfect.

Alas, it was not meant to be... not unless Kings GM Rob Blake finds a way to trade up from No.2 to No.1. He’s got plenty of time to try once the owner of the top pick claims its prize.

But I digress.

I have covered ever NHL Draft since 2002, save for two (2003 and 2011), and this will be the third time in 18 years that I will miss actually attending an NHL Draft – unless somehow the NHL creates a mini draft setup like it did at the Westin Hotel in Ottawa in 2005. Now that seven slots are decided and known, I’ll do something I haven’t done in at least 10 years – it’s been so long, I don’t even remember: a mock draft.

With Phase 1 of the NHL Draft Lottery in the books, I figure, why not.

No.1

Lafreniere will have to wait another five-to-six weeks before knowing which team will likely draft him first-overall. So, he’s off the board and trying to describe his game won’t even do it justice.

No.2

At first, I struggled with the second pick. The Kings are absolutely stacked with up-front talent coming down the pike, it’s not even fair. Gabe Vilardi, Alex Turcotte, Rasmus Kupari, Arthur Kaliyev, Samuel Fagemo, Akil Thomas, Jaret Anderson-Dolan and Tyler Madden... are you kidding me?

Had the Kings stayed at No.4, I would have pegged them taking defenceman Jamie Drysdale, but with Quinton Byfield and Tim Stutzle available, you can’t pass on either. Los Angeles has so many top-tier forward prospects, many of whom can play the centre position, I originally thought going with a winger might be the best approach.

But I see Byfield as a star #1 center in the NHL and you just can’t pass that up, even with Anze Kopitar owning at spot for at least the next four seasons – don’t misinterpret that, I see him playing in L.A. beyond his current contract.

No.3

The Erik Karlsson trade netted Ottawa the third-overall pick in the 2020 draft. Not bad, eh?

With Stutzle capable of playing both centre and the left wing, he should be a no-brainer selection for the Senators at No.3. With Brady Tkachuk leading the way, Anthony Duclair, Rudolfs Balcers and Colin White all under 25, and anticipated regulars Josh Norris, Drake Batherson, Alex Formenton and Shane Pinto waiting to earn spots, Ottawa’s going to look really good up front. (More on the Sens in two picks)

No.4

If you’re a Detroit Red Wings fan, you’re probably pretty pissed missing out on one of the top-three picks. Relax. The sky isn’t falling. If there’s a Draft to miss out on the top-three, it’s this year’s Draft.

It’s going to be difficult to predict what direction the Red Wings go in this year. After the lottery, Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman has acknowledged the team has “several good options” to choose from at No.4, and he sure isn’t wrong.

Last year, Yzerman surprised quite a few people by taking Moritz Seider sixth-overall. With Seider, Jared McIsaac and Gustav Lindstrom among the defencemen expected to join Filip Hronek in the coming years, their blueline could shape up quite nicely. But you can never have too many defencemen and that is why I suspect the Wings will seriously consider Jamie Drysdale or Jake Sanderson at this pick.

But Dylan Larkin and linemates Anthony Mantha and Tyler Bertuzzi need some help. Robby Fabbri proved to be a great addition, and with more NHL experience, Michael Rasmussen could blossom, but with Filip Zadina as their only legit top star threat up front, as of now, I can see Detroit going in the direction of a forward.

Cole Perfetti or Lucas Raymond could slot in this position, and both can play with Zadina, but I’m leaning towards Raymond for Detroit here, as his creativity and playmaking ability could work well alongside Z. Raymond is primarily a winger, but has some experience at the centre position.

No.5

Returning to Ottawa, the Senators will have a decision to make. Do they stick with bolstering their fire power up front or do they address the back end? If Drysdale is available, it is something GM Pierre Dorion is going to have to seriously think about.

On defence, the Sens are led by star Thomas Chabot and have Erik Brannstrom ready to secure a full-time spot on the blueline next season. Last year’s 19th overall pick Lassi Thomson and 2018’s 26th overall selection Jacob Bernard-Docker will be battling for minutes, too. If I’m Dorion and Co., I look for the potential stars among the forward corps and add up front by taking the versatile Perfetti.

All things considered, if Ottawa leaves the first-round with Stutzle, Perfetti and whomever they select with the New York Islanders’ first-round pick, which they’ll get unless the Isles lose in the qualifying round and win the lottery (then the Isles keep the pick and the Sens get their 2021 pick, instead), that’s one hell of a day.

No.6

If Detroit goes the forward route and Drysdale is still available at No.6, I’m not sure Anaheim passes up on the right-shooting defenceman.

Up front, Sam Steel, Max Jones, Isac Lundestrom, Troy Terry, Max Comtois, Brayden Tracey and Trevor Zegras give Anaheim solid options, and most should develop into quality NHLers, but the Ducks are thin with top defensive talent, especially on the right side. If Drysdale isn’t around, they’ll likely go the Marco Rossi, Alexander Holtz or Perfetti (if available) route. But since this is my mock draft, he’s going pick six (football reference alert).

Drysdale can run a powerplay and the Ducks could use help in that department, and they can use their second first-round pick from Boston, acquired in the David Backes deal, to go after another forward if they so choose.

No.7

Other than centre, the Devils need help at just about every position. A scoring winger would certainly help this team – playing alongside either Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes – as would a stud on the blueline.

The Devils have the possibility of owning two more first-round picks in this Draft. If the Arizona Coyotes don’t select first-overall, their pick will go to New Jersey – it was top-three lottery protected and the only way the Coyotes keep it is if they lose to Nashville in the qualifying round and don’t get win the top pick. If the Vancouver Canucks make the playoffs, by beating Minnesota, their pick also goes to the Devils. I use these picks for help on the wings, providing a high-ranking defenceman doesn’t fall into their laps, and select left-shooting blueliner Sanderson with the seventh-overall pick.

Potentially having Sanderson, 2018 17th overall pick Ty Smith and Kevin Bahl, acquired from Arizona in the Taylor Hall trade, on the left of New Jersey’s blueline significantly strengthens and deepens their defensive pairings.

No.8

Newly appointed Buffalo Sabres GM Kevyn Adams is going to almost-immediately leave his mark on the franchise’s future with the eighth-overall pick. This team needs an impact addition with this pick, and they’ll have multiple avenues to explore.

With Jack Eichel and Dylan Cozens poised to be their 1-2 punch up the middle, the Sabres should explore other options. They could go the winger route, but with Jeff Skinner (you have no choice but to give this season’s performance a bye, given his contract), Sam Reinhart and Victor Olofsson securing three of their four winger slots on their top-two lines, I’d explore elsewhere. Remember, the team’s still holding out hope forwards Casey Mittelstadt and Rasmus Asplund are mature into quality NHL talents.

Adams will be active this off-season, and the Sabres might finally move Rasmus Ristolainen for a top-six winger. Whether Ristolainen’s part of the club’s blueline next season isn’t a big factor into this year’s top pick – the Sabres have Rasmus Dahlin, Henri Jokiharju, Brandon Montour and Jake McCabe already in place, and last year’s 31st overall pick Ryan Johnson and 2018’s 32nd pick Mattias Samuelsson will soon try to enter the mix.

Sure, up front could use more fire power, but there’s another void that needs to be filled. Even as Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen works on his craft, I can’t see how Buffalo shies away from potential franchise goaltender Yaroslav Askarov.

Pagnotta's Phase 1 Mock Draft
#1 TBD Alexis Lafreniere, LW
#2 Los Angeles Kings Quinton Byfield, C
#3 Ottawa Senators (via SJ) Tim Stutzle, C/LW
#4 Detroit Red Wings Lucas Raymond, LW/RW
#5 Ottawa Senators Cole Perfetti, C/LW
#6 Anaheim Ducks Jamie Drysdale, D
#7 New Jersey Devils Jake Sanderson, D
#8 Buffalo Sabres Yaroslav Askarov, G
 
 
tfp_dpagnotta.jpg

David Pagnotta is the Editor-in-Chief of The Fourth Period.
Follow him on Twitter and Instagram.

Past Columns: