LAK POSTSEASON PRIMER: HOW WILL CHAPTER FOUR BE DIFFERENT

LOS ANGELES, CA — Unless there’s a significant reversal of form over the final five games of the NHL 2024-25 regular season, it will be Chapter Four of the first-round playoff saga between the Edmonton Oilers and the Los Angeles Kings. Some may look at Round 4 in a lesser light because of matchup fatigue, but this go-around stands to be the most intriguing because although the actors are the same – the script looks significantly different.

Starting with the obvious, the Kings are closing in on home ice advantage for the first-round an advantage they haven’t held since the 2016 playoff five-game loss to the San Jose Sharks. The importance of home ice advantage is magnified with the exceptional home record they have fashioned through 37 contests.

For a team that does not overpower opponents – Los Angeles ranks 18th in offense and only two other current playoff qualifiers, Ottawa and Minnesota have scored less – a 28-5-4 mark is no small feat. Adding to the franchise-setting achievement, only one of the five losses have come against current playoff qualifiers – the Toronto Maple Leafs – and amplifies the success of the defense-first scheme that was introduced by former coach Todd McLellan and refined by his successor, Jim Hiller.

The Kings are on a big run as the regular season draws to a close, winning 13 of their last 17 games, a body of work that’s gone largely unnoticed due to Alexander’s Ovechkin’s pursuit of 895 and the St. Louis Blues 12-game win streak that ended Monday in Winnipeg. Despite losing to Seattle on Monday, by holding a four standings points lead with five games remaining and with the Oilers struggling with health, there appears to be a sufficient gap to secure Game 1 in Los Angeles, likely on Easter Sunday.

Once they drop the puck for Game 83, what are the chances Los Angeles tames their playoff tormentors this time around?

For a team that entered the season with multiple question marks and incurred a major injury just minutes into the first preseason game which some believed would snap the streak of consecutive post-season appearances, to be within striking distance of the team’s franchise record for standings points (105) is an achievement, the success of the season has grown as the season lengthened. Other than the 2022 playoff round when the Kings led the series three games to two with a chance to close out the series in Game 6 in Los Angeles and eventually lost a seventh game that saw Connor McDavid play 27:23, this version of the Kings looks best suited to vanquish the Oilers and win a playoff series for the first time since winning the Stanley Cup in 2014.

As to the whys, there are multiple reasons why Los Angeles should enter the first-round as a slight favorite, that point alone signaling a possible change from recent history:

• A better team. From players 1 through 23, the Kings have the best roster to win a playoff series. Borne out of the early season discovery of what was and wasn’t working, Hiller eventually moved off the 11 forwards/7 defenseman alignment and settled into the traditional 12/6 once he got consistency from his forwards. Fitting the right pieces together resulted in two 30-goal scorers, seemingly not a major achievement but a rarity in these parts as the last time it was achieved was in 2007-08 season when Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown both hit that total. While they will need to score at the post-trade deadline clip they fashioned with the help of trade deadline acquisition Andrei Kuzmenko, they will only go as far as their defensive play will carry them. Darcy Kuemper is their clear-cut MVP and his statistics are on par with the assumptive Vezina winner, Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck, and the team ranks second-overall in goals-against. While the penalty kill appears to have improved with more aggressiveness, its percentage is lower than last season (81.7 compared to 84.6), numbers that were forgotten amid the Oilers obliterating them again – since the 2022 playoffs the Oilers have converted 45.5% of their man-advantage opportunities against the Kings, a stunning number. From a strategy standpoint, the move to increased aggressiveness is a necessity but Kuemper will have to come through in a big spot where Jonathan Quick, Jonas Korpisalo and Cam Talbot previously failed.

• A better mentality. From winning close games to increased team toughness, there is more resilience and toughness. The Kings were outclassed in five games last Spring but worse than that, they were bullied by the Oilers throughout which spurred the off-season moves to acquire Joel Edmundson and Tanner Jeannot and supplemented with the second NHL go-around of fourth line center Sami Helenius who adds size and snarl to the fourth line. As for resilience in close games, it’s embedded in their DNA to play them as Hiller remarked after the Seattle loss:
  “We play one goal games, it doesn't matter who we play. It's a grind, it's one goal, it's close. We’ve been on the right side of a lot of (close games), which is good, but it almost doesn't matter the opponent.”

• A weaker opponent. The pain Los Angeles felt through early season injury trouble is being felt by the Edmonton Oilers now. Missing both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl down the stretch has cost them home ice throughout the playoffs short of a one of the Western wild card team rising up (which isn’t too far fetched with the Blues run of play). The undersold absence with the all the attention on McDavid and Draisaitl is that of Mattias Ekholm, who hasn’t played since March 26, the main cog in their defensive play. The fourth MIA is starting goaltender Stuart Skinner, who has been sidelined as long as Ekholm, but even when healthy, his play has regressed in every statistical category. In speaking with people in the know in Edmonton, the expectation is all four players will be ready for Game 1, but it remains to be seen how healthy they will be.  But even at 100 percent, this Oilers team isn’t close to the one that came within one game of winning it all last June. The numerous off-season departures and their replacements have made them older (the oldest team in the league), slower and despite the presence of the two most talented players of their generation, less talented. The attention to detail and the defensive structure installed by Kris Knoblauch last season has deteriorated. Their greatest strength, the home power play success rate has regressed from an eye-popping 32.8 percent to a human-like 23.7 percent. It’s a flawed team with two great players but two that can still rise up and win a series.

But in a game where you fight for feet during the regular season and fight for inches in the playoffs, regular season trends and statistics though helpful in building confidence have no effect once they drop the puck.

DOUGHTY FOR MASTERTON

Drew Doughty’s 17th NHL season almost ended before he started when he went into the boards against Vegas’ Tanner Pearson just minutes into the Kings’ first preseason game. On a play he’s made thousands of times, the result of the collision from the board battle was the most serious injury of his storied career. The resulting fractured ankle and ligament damage robbed him of 48 games and jeopardized his opportunity to play in the 4 Nations Face-Off, a goal set once the international best-on-best tournament was announced. Faced with his biggest career challenge he rehabbed diligently to become a member of the winning Canadian squad and though his ice-time has been reduced from his standard, he still leads the team in average time-on-ice per game.

With his commitment to overcome adversity this season, Doughty has been selected as the nominee for the 2025 Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy by the Los Angeles chapter of the Professional Hockey Writers Association. The Trophy is awarded annually to the National Hockey League player who best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship, and dedication to ice hockey.

Drew reflected on his most challenging season when learning of the honor. He’s not practicing with the team even with their limited practice scheduled and the reality is he won’t be 100 percent healthy until next season.

“It was a tough year for me, a tough injury to come back from,” he said. “I still don't feel normal, but finally feeling better it took me a while. I’m fortunate to be back playing with these guys and finally playing well again. I always thought I was coming back but it was a tough road back.

“I feel bad I’m not out there if the guys are practicing. I don’t wanna be like the guy that doesn't have to practice when everyone else has to practice. I don’t like that part of it, but unfortunately, it’s just what I have to do to be able to play games.  I do think some games my passing has been off, and I feel like my one-timers aren’t where I want them to be. I do think that has to do with not practicing, but this is the only way I’m able to play, so it’s what I got to do. It’s just things like that but I’m still playing well. I’ve been really happy with my games. I had one bad game in Chicago but I’ve been happy with my game for the past month.”

Hiller expanded on the challenge of coming back and the subsequent nomination.

“He’s got a lot of career highlights on his resume but getting back and playing in the 4 Nations ranks up there as any of them because of what he went through,” he said. “People always heard he was rehabbing but what he had to go through daily, that commitment I didn’t expect him to be able to play on that short notice. He’s truly a unique player, one of the best of his generation and this year he showed us the commitment off the ice and how much it means to him.

“I know he wanted to play in (4 Nations) and how, especially a defenseman, from what everybody’s told me, was some of the fastest hockey that they’ve ever played. After just 10 days on the ice to play at that level, I don’t know what there’s left to say after that. If you know Drew, there’s nobody who loves the game and enjoys his teammates more and everything that goes with it. Whether it’s playing cards or at dinners and all those kinds of things so, there was a physical component and there was a mental component which really changed.”