LAK STRETCH RUN: HOW WILL IT BE DIFFERENT?

LOS ANGELES, CA — With 27 games remaining in a unique Los Angeles Kings season, the team is entrenched in a three-way dance for the Pacific Division title with the Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights. The road to contention has been crooked given mileposts along the way – a massive injury in the first minute of the preseason, a taxing first half road schedule and enduring a natural disaster in my hometown.

Despite doubts about their playoff qualifications at the start of the season, Head Coach Jim Hiller and his team are closing in on a fourth consecutive playoff appearance for the franchise, despite having an average offense and a below-average powerplay. After a 5-2 victory over the Vegas Golden Knights on Monday and in a game that had the feel of a Game 83 much more than the actual 55, Los Angeles is on pace for 103 points, a total that may not secure the franchise’s first-ever Pacific Division title but will have them play but will have them in the mix for the top spot in the season’s final weeks.

The team’s on-ice path to a potential division title has been as unique as the off-ice path. Hiller wrung out the 1-3-1 defensive structure abided by former coach Todd McLellan, that alignment was a necessary tool to get the franchise out of the nether regions of non-contention, but its effectiveness waned in the playoffs against the Edmonton Oilers and the off-season flip to a more liberating 1-2-2 was made.

Despite appearing traditional, the coach’s strategy of using 11 forwards and 7 defensemen hasn't increased offense (LA averages 2.91 goals per game this season compared to last season’s 3.10), largely due to a power play drop from 12th to 28th in efficiency. However, it has led to wins and slightly improved defense (2.53 goals against this season vs 2.56).

While the two games coming out of the 4 Nations break saw the Kings register 10 goals in win against Utah and Vegas, the identity of the team is still borne out of its commitment to defense, checking for its chances and limiting high danger scoring chances in front of either goaltenders Darcy Kuemper or David Rittich. The team that was bullied throughout the five-game elimination by the Oilers this past Spring won’t be showing up for the first postseason game regardless of the opponent. The addition of Tanner Jeannot and Joel Edmundson have diffused the after-the-whistle tactics opponents have gotten away with over prior seasons and the roster may evolve into a menacing one when Sami Helenius and Andre Lee resurface next season.

Over the past month, the good Kevin Fiala has kept the bad Kevin Fiala off the ice. He’s eliminated the hope passes and hero plays, the unnecessary offensive zone penalties to resurface as the weapon that opposing defenses must account for on every shift. Quinton Byfield may never become the volume shooter required to become a big-time goal scoring center but his career-high four assists in the victory of Vegas indicates he’s becoming more comfortable as a facilitator.

The defense continues to be stingy in surrendering 5-on-5 high danger changes and the quality of the group’s play stands to improve with a revitalized Drew Doughty, powered by a return to full health and a successful run as a 4 Nations champion. In the eight NHL games played prior to Wednesday’s game against Vancouver, he’s averaged a shade more time-on-ice than last season (25:55 v 25:48) which would normally be a concern for a 35 year old player in his 17th season but in this season that’s been anything but normal, not playing until Game 48 assures there’s plenty in the tank for the stretch run.

There’s this crazy run the team has put together playing in their home barn at 11th and Figueroa in downtown LA. The overall home record is 19-3-2 going into the Vancouver – one of three teams that have registered a regulation win at Crypto.com Arena – that includes 11 straight wins against playoff qualifiers and a 15-1-1 record in their last 17 in LA.  There were signs at the end of last season that a distinct home ice advantage was being forged – another difference between the Hiller and McLellan regimes, the previous administration had cultivated a road warrior personality and established league records away from home but could never replicate it after returning home.

As for the why to the eye-popping home win percentage, the team struggles far more trying to explain why they’ve been great far more than getting it done. The usual reasons have been suggested – the home crowd, sleeping in their own beds, familiarity of routine but they have always been present. I think it’s a mindset, a team growing in confidence and now having the expectation that with an honest 60-minute effort, they will skate off with two standings points. Combine that with its style of play that may not produce the rare four-goal, third period blitz from Monday but it’s also as rare to be out of a game entering the third period. On nights where they’ve been far from their best, they stay within striking distance of the opposition and need one big play to change momentum.

That’s about 800 words of the positives of this Kings season, some pleasant surprises from newly acquired players like Warren Foegele, Edmundson and Jeannot and continued out-of-the-box approach by Hiller.

Despite that, they’re not favorites to win the Pacific Division or get home ice advantage in the first round of the postseason. I wouldn’t consider them a serious contender to win the third Stanley Cup in franchise history and neither do the various sports books (odds presently hover around 20-1) because while many franchises would sign right now to be on track for a 103 standings points season and a presumed fourth consecutive playoff appearance, the plateau they’ve hit is a level below a championship one.

What’s missing? What could shift this team to the next level where progression would be measured by a deep playoff run, not just by winning a single playoff round? Three things come to mind, two are interconnected and one is a growing point of controversy.

THE RIGHT-HANDED SHOT

June will mark the second anniversary of Gabe Vilardi being traded to Winnipeg and there’s still calls to wipe out the front office due to this failed trade – and yes, unless Kuemper has another Cup run in him like he did in Colorado (with tons of help) – given the Kings haven’t regressed (though an argument could be made with the playoff results, from a seven game contentious elimination to a five game surrender is regression) from the aftermath, the lamenting is misplaced. The failed trade didn’t make the Kings better, but it hasn’t made them worse. The fair, accurate criticism of the front office is that they still haven’t replaced Vilardi’s presence with a comparable talent. Blake hasn’t shown the same resilience in the executive suite that his team shows on the ice, every GM makes regrettable deals and trades, it’s the next move that separates the elite managers.

And to this day that void has not been filled, he’s not made the next big move.

Alex Laferriere has been a great find and showed that his solid rookie season could be a platform for a solid sophomore season, but he projects as a solid middle-six winger as opposed to the top line player Vilardi has become.

Yes, the Kings are a team that spends to the cap, so there are limitations from a cap space and likely from an acquisition cost but until Blake can figure out how to import a player that fills the need, the odds for post season success sits where it’s been for the past three seasons.

THE POWERPLAY

The success of the powerplay is directly connected to the lack of threat on the right side that renders one-half of the ice toothless with the man advantage. The return of Doughty and the dangerous shot he’s developed with the change of stick last season will add some bite down the stretch but until there’s a threat that balances out the ice, how much can the production elevate from its 29th place standing?

One member of the organization acknowledged the need and admitted “those players don’t grow on trees” and while that’s true, the inability to fill a void for this long is a sign that sometimes you need to swallow hard and overpay whether it’s a rental option (Kyle Palmieri with the Islanders fading, Brock Boeser given the continuing dysfunction in Vancouver) or players with term that may be a struggle to fit in this season but with the projected escalating salary cap ceiling could turn into value deals (Bryan Rust or Rickard Rakell from a Penguins team that needs to start rebuilding today).

There is an alternative to the right shot/powerplay gap which could improve the stretch drive offense. It’s apparent that Alex Turcotte is not the point producer needed to team with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe. Credit him for fighting back from a tough injury history and putting in the work to get an opportunity to play in a top six role but his inability to make plays (either by facilitating or finishing) has resulted in reduced playing time and probable shift down the depth chart with the playoffs on the horizon.

Short of finding that elusive right shot presence before the March 7 NHL trade deadline, an acceptable option would be to get a legitimate finisher (leaving Fiala in place, not moving up) on left wing.  Moving Byfield up to that spot worked last season but to reprise it now would just create another hole to patch.

If the Kings don’t add a forward by the deadline and with the understanding that it’s a tricky move from a cap and resource perspective, if it doesn’t happen it’s a losing trade deadline.

CLARKE CONUMDRUM

The Kings haven’t given up on or disrespected Brandt Clarke over the past few weeks. His season began well, but his performance declined over the last 20-25 games, which is common among young NHL players. Being benched for two games in January was justified due to the drop in effectiveness; a short break often helps underperforming players reset. Some insist he never should have been eating press box popcorn as the team’s leading scoring defenseman, but no coach makes playing time decisions based on full season statistics.

It’s about trends and for the moment Clarke is trending as the Kings seventh most effective defenseman. Those who fret about the middle stanza of his season shouldn’t be worried about this short derailment to potential stardom. Yes, it’s difficult to sit some nights, play sparingly in others but in talking to and observing Clarke, there’s probably not a 22-year-old in the NHL more capable of handling it.

Maybe it’s knocked a shade off the great confidence instilled in him which helps him go end-to-end but that same confidence will get him through the first and certainly not last rough patch of his professional career.

That’s essential because make no mistake, the Kings need Brandt Clarke and Brandt Clarke needs the Kings. He may not develop into the unicorns that Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes have become but there’s no roster player that has the combination skill and potential he has. Fiala can match skill but we’re seeing the ceiling of his play over the last month. For those wringing their hands over his current depth chart status, the realization that Clarke has just scratched the surface of what he can do at this level should temper their fear.

But in acknowledging the criticism of the present usage, Clarke gives Los Angeles no help when he’s in the pressbox and just not much more when playing under 10 minutes a night. He’s an X Factor that this organization rarely develops and needs from both a talent and personality perspective (a locker room devoid of personality other than Doughty).

It reasonable to think that if Clarke were given 14-16 minutes in a seven game playoff series, he wouldn’t make a game changing play along the way. His reduction in ice time wasn’t borne out of defensive inefficiencies but from declining offensive production. Clarke must improve his shot, the primary reason his power play time was reduced but even that gap in his toolbox to be worked on, he’s not the seventh best defenseman on the roster.

It will be an interesting nine days leading up to the trade deadline.