KINGS AT THE BREAK: PACK MENTALITY

LOS ANGELES, CA — It’s 47 games down, 35 to go for the Los Angeles Kings now resting in the middle of a 12-day break. They start the back end of their schedule on February 15 against the Edmonton Oilers and do so in the pack of teams fighting for a playoff spot, firmly entrenched in a battle to play beyond Game 82 in May.

Unless an unforeseen cratering of their season occurs, the primary goal of the franchise turning the corner towards playoff contention will be achieved. Given the strength/weakness of the Pacific Division, the 96-point pace registered, if continued, raises the prospects of Kings fans dipping into their pockets for playoff tickets in the spring.

To some, the possibility of that scenario alone would stamp the season a success. At the season start I said the primary goal of this team should be to play games of consequence in the final weeks and to be in position to be a buyer at the trade deadline. But with all the variables that could derail the solid half-season-plus, I’ll wait until the season concludes before I stamp the season a complete success.

As for that ride through the final 35, the watch stands to be even more intriguing than the first 47. What this team has proven is when they play their game, they can play with any team including the NHL’s elite. Here’s a look back and forward, what’s worked and needs work, and some grades to put a cherry on top.

CHECKS AND MORE CHECKS... AND BEFORE YOU’RE DONE, SOME MORE CHECKS

You can check the identity box for the Kings because of checking. At season’s start, Coach Todd McLellan leaned into a cliché with his desire to make his team difficult to play against. With an improved and more importantly, a quicker roster the cliché has become reality. It’s no longer a surprise to see LA dominate puck possession for long stretches, which create an imbalance on the shot board, but yet not on the scoreboard. There is an intangible that connects to the tangibles, that of decision-making and situational awareness. This season has featured a marked decrease in making errors – both mental and physical – at key times, a trait unusual for a team with so much youth and that’s because...

A DEVELOPING SITUATION

One facet of this team that is impressive and unexpected is the ability to integrate players with minimal or no NHL experience, have them fit into the system and perform without making mistakes that cost them games. It’s clearly demonstrated on the blueline where significant injuries have asked Mikey Anderson and Tobias Bjornfot to roles of greater importance, placed Sean Durzi into a featured role as an offensive defenseman and trickles down to a player like Jacob Moverare. Whether it’s system, teaching or drafting to a personality profile, the calmness the kids show on the ice is a credit to the development system they have graduated from.

THEY’RE, UM... SPECIAL

If the Kings do miss the playoffs, you can bet a few quid that it will be due to the lack of improvement on special teams. To steal a line from the movie Animal House, being ranked 24th on the powerplay and 30th on the penalty is no way to go through life. The bottom quarter rating on the power play is understandable as it’s a function of the lack of big-time offensive talent on the roster. The penalty kill is far more mystifying as they only yield a shade over 1.5 goals per game at even strength. The suggestion that the system/coaching needs to change doesn’t appear to be valid given they are not among the worst in surrendering shots (at the top of the bottom half in shots against – 19th). The only stat that stands out is one that you wouldn’t think would be the case, goaltending. Their PK save percentage is fourth lowest, but their high-danger save percentage standing mirrors their shots yielded 19th overall. The number suggest that both Jonathan Quick and Cal Petersen need to be better not in the big spot but the average spot on the penalty kill for the numbers to improve.

SCHEDULE FAVORS

Hopefully, we’re done with a schedule that skews to teams holding five games in hand on others after this season – that number is what both Calgary and Edmonton hold on Los Angeles into the break. In a normal year, you’d want the games in hand as they are opportunities to gain ground but in a climate that is everything but normal, I think it’s a competitive advantage to have played the games. Calgary has played a whopping dozen games more on the road than at home and that favors them to capture one of the top three playoff berths in the Pacific, but at what cost? Their schedule includes a stretch of playing three games in four nights, five in eight nights in February and three games in four nights, five in seven in March and finish with seven games in 11 days.

In addition, Los Angeles holds a competitive advantage on strength-of-schedule. According to tankathon.com, the Kings’ remaining schedule is the sixth “easiest” with a quarter against Arizona, Seattle, Chicago and Buffalo.

SCHOOL’S IN

We all love lists and rankings, so it’s report card time. Marks are subjective and in context to how they do their job on depth – minimum 25 games played:

General Manager Rob Blake: A-. He didn’t panic when the team stumbled out of the break and some incorrectly were calling for the Toddfather’s head. His understated off-season moves have paid off, Phillip Danault is exactly the type of center to support Anze Kopitar now, Viktor Arvidsson has been far more impactful of late, and the void caused by Alexander Edler’s absence has shown what an undervalued signing it was. He gets to an A with the acquisition of either a significant left defenseman or proven scorer at the deadline.

Coach Todd McLellan: B+. It would be an A if not for the performance of the special teams, though I believe it’s far more about personnel than system when it comes to the failure with the extra man, he ultimately holds the responsibility for the poor penalty kill. For those who insist he’s the wrong guy, the team is on track for a pro-rated 23 points standings improvement, so he’s not wrong, you are.

FORWARDS

Adrian Kempe: A. The team’s leading goal scorer and lone All-Star representative, Kempe became the impact player his tools always said he should be. A far more confident player who no longer disappears for weeks like he did in his five previous seasons. Credit him for sticking to it and the organization for still believing in him, I guess sometimes it just takes this long.

Anze Kopitar: A-. Still comfortably the team’s leading scorer, time on ice leader for forwards, best faceoff man and still irreplaceable. His -6 rating is curious given the team is far better and you wonder what his offensive numbers would be with a proven goal scorer on his right side.

Alex Iafallo: A-. The moral to his season story – when you shoot more you score more. A player who commits few mistakes, Iafallo should put some distance between himself and his 17-goal career high soon and his fancy stats are more impressive because of his partnership with...

Phillip Danault: A-. The right player in the right role at the right time for this franchise. If he had a dangerous shot, he’d be the perfect 2C and by missing that facet he will never be more than a mid-teens goal scorer. He’s miscast as the center for the second unit powerplay but hopefully that is rectified with the continued progression of Quinton Byfield. In the moment, earned every penny of his deal.

Viktor Arvidsson: B. Maybe not the 34-goal scorer he once was in Nashville but definitely not the 10 goals in 50 games from last season as well. Found a home with Danault and Iafallo and has posted 8 goals and 8 assists since January 1. I’m biased, I like to have a player who shoots first and ask questions later on my top six.

Trevor Moore: B+. Lack of goal scoring (7 total, 10 game goalless streak before a two-goal performance at Pittsburgh) keep his grade from being an A, but he’s second among forwards in assists and plus/minus despite averaging less than 15 minutes per game. Despite his solid points run coming into the break (2G, 5A in last 6 games), he’s not a top six NHL winger but eventually perfect 3rd liner for this team.

Blake Lizotte: A. The Lizzo engine that could, Blake is one of the better success stories of the Rob Blake regime. He heads up a fourth line that’s become a third line and doubled his goal total over last season in the same number of games played (41). Danault’s presence and his linemates production have given him more opportunities in the offensive zone this season.

Brendan Lemieux: B. If he didn’t chew on some fingers, he would have received an A. Brings a facet to the ice no other player does for an averaged size team with no true enforcer. The offense he provides is a bonus (7 EV goals in 35 games) and if he can manage his temper that leads to poor decision making, he will earn an extension this summer as he is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights.

Arthur Kaliyev: B-. Eager to see what the second half brings for the 20-year-old as he is no longer competing for a roster spot. Producing at a pace in the mid-teens for goals and projecting to the 20+ range when/if he graduates to the top six in 2022-23. Has done a solid job building his 200-foot-game but surprisingly he hasn’t been a force on the power play and his shooting percentage is below average (7.3%) given the quality of his shot.

Dustin Brown: C+. A pivotal player for the stretch run but not in the classic sense of goal scoring or point totals. His presence on the right side of Quinton Byfield will go a long way to determine 55’s effectiveness but also expect more than six goals in 44 games given a 5.1% shooting percentage.

Rasmus Kupari: D. Given opportunity to establish himself as the 3C at season start, the former first round pick has been invisible with the big club and earned the demotion to the AHL. Maybe he’s the next coming of Adrian Kempe, a Swede with size and speed the organization will need to have more patience but just as likely to be a fringe NHL player without progression.

Carl Grundstrom: C. Doesn’t hurt the team (+3), the puck finds his stick on occasion (6G in 29 games while averaging only 11:10), the issue is where does he fit on the depth chart. Clearly not a top six forward and his style doesn’t fit the team’s newly found checking identity but if he’s the third best player resulting from the Jake Muzzin trade, you won the trade.

DEFENSEMAN

Drew Doughty: B. When Drew went down with a sprained knee, some thought the team’s post season chances did, too. The team survived and actually thrived in his absence, but don’t start thinking they can win over the long-term without him. His offense has returned, his leadership has never wavered, but his defense needs to improve, particularly on the penalty kill for the Kings to finish in the final eight.

Matt Roy: A. Matt will never be confused with Cale Makar but if you want 20+ minutes of steady defensive effort every night, he’s your guy. Still sniffing around for his first goal of the season but has become a facilitator (13 assists, tracking to mid-20’s) and should lead the team again in plus/minus.

Sean Durzi: A-. LA’s X-factor on the blueline. Wasn’t on the radar to start the season but with injuries to Sean Walker and Doughty, he got the call and made the most of it. With one of the weakest offensive defense contingents in the league, he’s provided flair and points. Lacks the big shot and has significant work to do in his own zone before you can call him an impact player, but he’s been setup by McLellan to maximize his tools.

Mikey Anderson:  A. He could be the kind of unspectacular player who plays 15 NHL seasons. A clear progression in his game from awareness and more physicality in his own end to confidence in the offensive zone. Now taking some risk in joining the play, a venture he never would have undertaken last season. Another defender who needs to improve his PK game in the final 35.

Tobias Bjornfot: C+. Just expect more from a first-round pick who is closing in on 100 games played. Not an offensive force, not a big-time penalty killer but he won’t turn 21 until April. No problem exercising patience but on balance, needs further progression.

Alexander Edler: A. Robbed a strong bounce-back season at age 35 by a serious lower leg injury that clouds his status for the rest of the season. The question mark attached to him disappeared a dozen games in and his play continued to improve until being felled which led to…..

Olli Maatta: C. A third pair/seventh defenseman disguised a top four. Wisely paired with the steady Matt Roy to mitigate his turnovers/decision making errors. Good enough most nights but noticeably bad on the others. Likely the odd man out if Blake obtains the left side defender he needs.

GOALIES

Jonathan Quick: B. Majority of the grade comes from not tapping out, staying in character and dispelling the talk that he was done after a poor season. Quick is in the top 10 in goals saved above expected but only Sergei Bobrovsky gives up more rebounds per save, a trend that needs to be corrected. The PK units in front of him have been poor but his numbers suggest he can be better as well.

Cal Petersen: C. The heir apparent is not quite heir. With his future secured off a three-year, $15 million extension and a better puck possession team in front of him, he has surprisingly regressed and only lately shown that he’s better than the 2.67, .900 save percentage stats the numbers say he is.

TEAM: A-. Excluding their 1-5-1 start, the Kings are 23-11-6 in their last 40 games. That’s not a good start, that’s a good team. Setting the numbers aside, Los Angeles has become a competitive, if not entertaining team. You can count on one hand the number of poor efforts they’ve put in and the days where you could wave the white flag down 2-0 five minutes into a game are past. They have bought into the Toddfather System to become a solid checking, puck-possession team. But there are gaps, specifically on special teams, the lack of a big finisher up front and a legitimate partner for Doughty on the top pair. While Colorado and Vegas don’t see Los Angeles as a West threat, barring a massive collapse the fact that the Kings will be playing games of consequence down the stretch and are positioned to be a buyer puts them on track for a successful season.

TRADE PICTURES

If you follow me on Twitter (@DennisTFP), you know one of my schticks is to tweet a small/medium/big picture after every Kings game, a fun little feature that assess the game, the ramifications and what’s up next. As Los Angeles looks to be a buyer at the trade deadline for the first time in a long time, here’s some short- and long-term trade deadline pictures.

ADDING A SCORER

With the offense still struggling in all situations, here’s two pictures, both left side solutions:

Small (rental) picture: If the Dallas Stars fall out of contention, Joe Pavelski is a dead-on hit. Still one of the premier powerplay specialists in the game at age 37. He’s very familiar with the Pacific Division and would immediately become one of the leaders in a room with a lot of youth.

Big (free agent signing) picture: My TFP partner Dave Pagnotta reported on NHL Network on Tuesday that there have been no talks between the Nashville Predators and Filip Forsberg’s camp. The team and Forsberg’s reps are expected to chat leading up to the trade deadline but there is a good chance he walks to unrestricted free agency in June. Would be a hefty price given the number of suitors, but he checks all the boxes – a dynamic, exciting scorer who makes the team better before the ink dries on the contract.

LEFT SIDE DEFENSE

Small (rental) picture: Ben Chariot appears the top left defenseman for this trade deadline and while you have to throw out his awful numbers given the state of the Montreal Canadiens, I would not surrender the first-round pick most assume he will return. I’d prefer one expensive (from a cap perspective) option and one inexpensive – if the assumptive move of Mark Giordano returning home to Calgary doesn’t come to fruition, why not use a former Flame to beat your former coach out of a potential playoff spot? At the other end of the spectrum, the New York Islanders Andy Greene would be a capable partner for Doughty and add to the challenged penalty kill but given he has played in the New York Metro area his entire career lessens the likelihood on a short term move west.

Big (off-season trade) picture: Everyone wants Jakob Chychrun, including me. Right age, right cap hit and term, right skill set... but oh that price. The question is, do you empty the tank at this juncture of the rebuild? Are you certain that in the final of his three seasons remaining on his deal, you are the Stanley Cup contender you need to be given the price you’ve paid? Or do you look to two teams the opposite ends of the spectrum with some Russian flavor to fill this long-time need?

Philadelphia is a mess at present and an influx of assets for 25-year-old Ivan Provorov (3 seasons left at $6.75 million) could give them a pathway to a fresh start.

Eventually, the Tampa Bay formula of adding veteran players on sweetheart deals looking to win a Cup will eventually fail and they’ll need some higher picks and prospects. Besides, it’s time Tampa gifts back to LA a defenseman for the one they got in Eric Cernak, so why not Mikhail Sergachev (23 years old, 1 year remaining at $4.8 million then an arbitration eligible RFA)?

Enjoy the final 35.