KINGS AT 30: STAYING IN THE FIGHT

LOS ANGELES, CA — The Los Angeles Kings returned home after a surprisingly successful roadtrip with the backdrop of uncertainty around the most recent variant of the COVID-19 virus. Omicron clouds when and where they play games over the short-term, but over the past 10 games since I’ve checked in, the identity of this team continues to emerge as one that is competitive and difficult to score on when they adhere to a checking game, but struggles to score consistently at 5-on-5 play.

Amidst the protocols challenges (which needs change quickly), Los Angeles has received solid play from both expected and unexpected sources on a trip that turned successful after a come-from-behind 3-2 victory over the Washington Capitals. The win made the cross-country trip back to Southern California a happy one, a victory that materialized out of nowhere as they were goalless late in the second period and hung around on the play of Garret Sparks, a last-minute stand-in with Cal Petersen in protocols.

As they’ve done on many nights, the Kings hang around and using a boxing analogy – they get knocked down but don’t get knocked out. That was the case on Sunday, Sparks didn’t allow the deficit grow to a point where a comeback was unachievable, Blake Lizotte potted the season’s second short-handed goal and Adrian Kempe continued his contract-drive season with his team-leading 12th goal of the season.

It all adds up to 33 points in 30 games (14-11-5), a 90-point pace over 82 games – a rate a few points higher than I expect for this season.

Digging into what is and isn’t working for this team, threads I see:

NET GAINS

Prepare yourself for a $10.8 million cap hit for Los Angeles next season. Jonathan Quick numbers are superior to his 2018 Jennings Trophy campaign and although he is turning 36 next month, spotting him correctly and continued solid play in front of him should keep him in this range.

His style hasn’t changed radically, his reflexes either reappeared or never left, and he’s seeing the puck to be in position to make the save that keeps his team in the game. One thing that never departed was his media game – he could care less about personal numbers other than the one in the W column. The Garret Sparks chapter written on Sunday is one I will offer when critics only speak negatively about hockey culture. His emotional post-game interview just one story of all that’s right with this game.

For all that unexpected goodness, the sinking season of Cal Petersen is as unexpected. Coach Todd McLellan never handed him the keys to the caged castle, but the expectation was that with a contract extension and the comparatively superior numbers to Quick from last season by the time the season Game 30, he would emerge as the top dog.

You know the rest; the emergence didn’t come from Cal and in his latest performances he looks uncertain and isn’t making saves in a big spot. His time in protocols will give him time to correct his approach and give what is necessary in support of Quick. The only outcome that doesn’t have over $10 million in cap space next season would be if Los Angeles falls out of playoff contention and a Stanley Cup contender makes a call to General Manager Rob Blake for Quick.

THE TODDFATHER PART III

To the dismay of a faction of Kings fans, the growing competitive nature of the team is disintegrating their wish for McLellan to be shown the door. During the valleys that are a signature of still-developing teams, his detractors point to his overall record with the team, his inability to play youngsters while lamenting that 28-year-old Martin Frk is being buried in the AHL (can you please pick a side) and other points that don’t warrant dismissal at the NHL level.

Do I know if McLellan is the right coach to lead this team back to Stanley Cup contention? No, but what is clear is that in his third season with an improved roster the team has made significant strides this season.

Through 30 games, the Kings have either led or been tied through two periods in 19 games (63.3 percent). Considering Los Angeles has scored only 15 first period goals shows that although they don’t fire coming out of the box, they don’t surrender much and stay within striking distance. The growth shown is primarily on the defense given the absence of Drew Doughty, who was first sidelined with a knee sprain and now resides on the C-19 list. The Doughty missing game count is up to 19 and the team’s record is 10-7-2 without him – not an indicator that the team is better without him (statistically record-wise they are but let’s be real), but a sign of growth, adapting to his absence. Layer on top the team’s 3-1-1 record without Alexander Edler – whose solid season was submarined by a long-term injury – you cannot question that the team has bought into the coach’s message.

But it’s folly to say that McLellan’s work is done, far from it until the team stamps itself a legitimate Stanley Cup contender and the question is where the work needs to be done to get to the next level.

IT’S ALWAYS ABOUT GOALS

The big picture answer is an obvious one: goal scoring, because it’s always about goals. The roster improvement strengthens the team on the defensive side of the puck, the combination of scheme, talent and netminding places the team in the top 10 defensively, a ranking earned despite the lack of size teams like Tampa Bay (just behind them in the defensive rankings) possess. On the offensive side, the needle has barely moved (2.63 goals per games this season, 2.54 last) and the old standby take of “the powerplay sucks” isn’t the reason. The Kings are in the middle of the league in powerplay goals scored (17) ahead of Florida, Tampa Bay and yes, even Alex Ovechkin’s Washington Capitals.

What has prevented Los Angeles from posting a better record is the lack of goal-scoring at 5-on-5 play; they are in the bottom third in that statistic, trailing the Seattle Kraken by one goal (54 v 53). While the team stays in the fight most nights, its inability to put the puck in the net early, either to take the lead or extend it, prevents separation in games and keeps the opponent in the fight, as well.

As a group, the 7.6% shooting percentage is a tick better than the Arizona Coyotes and drops to 6.6% at 5-on-5 play. Los Angeles is nearing the top of the league in shots and high danger chances; the offensive scheme wouldn’t appear to be the issue. It’s fair to say that Doughty’s absence impacts the percentage but it’s more the slow starts of Viktor Arvidsson and Dustin Brown and the lack of offensive emergence from its prospects pool that has muted the offense.

The other overarching issue is the inability to create offense from the blueline, even with the presence of Doughty. Christian Wolanin’s tying goal against Washington was Los Angeles’ third even-strength goal this season. Goal scoring skill isn’t in the toolbox of this blueline and that’s why you will continue to read the name “Jakob Chychrun” in future columns. Or you can say “bad shooting luck” and the team will approach the mean over the last 52 games.  

One caveat here on the prospect pool – Arthur Kaliyev is on pace for 16 goals from the fourth line averaging 12 minutes a night. That is the type of productivity you want to see when projecting him forward for a top-six role in coming seasons. The surprising part of his game is that he hasn’t found a way to be an impact player on the powerplay (2 PPGs); I would have expected more production in a feature role.

So, the Kings aren’t going to challenge for the Pacific Division title and not in the running for Shane Wright in the 2022 NHL Draft. If a team comparable isn’t either Vegas or Arizona, who would it be?

A MEASURING DUCK

Yep, it’s the team that plays 30 miles south, a team that was thought to be behind Los Angeles in the standings and in the prospect pool development at season’s start.

The schedule upheaval could make it hard to compare teams over the coming weeks but make no mistake, Anaheim’s ability to play an exciting and winning brand of hockey (and that’s in the aftermath of General Manager Bob Murray’s departure) is the present measuring stick. Like the Kings, they chose not to trade off future for Jack Eichel and in the short term, they have won that short term bet. Specifically, that’s more about Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale than Troy Terry. Terry is 24 years old and in his fifth NHL season, his comparable and emergence relates more to Kempe than Quinton Byfield or Alex Turcotte.

While we’re waiting for the Los Angeles prospects to make their impact, Zegras and Drysdale show that kids can galvanize a franchise. Entering the season, the question was: how will Anaheim score? One area where Anaheim is significantly superior to Los Angeles is on the blueline – 18 even strength goals – and they’ve scored 23 more goals despite getting two combined goals from Ryan Getzlaf, Jakob Silfverberg and Max Comtois.

While Kings fans cringe at the Zegras/Turcotte comparison, Trevor’s ascension has changed the optics on which Kings’ prospect he should be compared. His dynamic play and ability to make players around him better – Sonny Milano as Exhibit A – shifts the conversation to Byfield as the comparable. It’s no longer draft class comparable, it’s best vs. best.

The Ducks briefly held first place as a result of playing games (a novelty these days) but I don’t expect them to challenge for the title. As Vegas gets healthier and Eichel is added, I believe they will distance the Pacific Division field by the time Game 82. There are question marks throughout the rest of the division and with Anaheim’s unexpectedly strong start, they stand an excellent chance to make the post season.

Regardless of where each team finishes this season, it’s great for Southern California hockey fans to have their teams progressing after multiple years of noncompetitive and boring hockey.

MOVING FORWARD

A few words on the state of the NHL as it pertains to the pandemic:

In my role as host on SiriusXM NHL Network Radio, I’ve been vocal about where the league needs to progress to maintain continuity for the current season. To this point, the NHL and NHLPA have been leaders on dealing with the virus, but as the Omicron variant (which based on my reading is more contagious but less severe) is the dominant variant in North America, it’s time to pivot off protocols that were originally enacted prior to the introduction of C-19 vaccines.

The anecdotal information showing an overwhelming majority of players who test positive are either asymptomatic or show slight symptoms should be a tipping point away from daily testing of all players. It came as no surprise that reaction to my stance on social media was split down the middle, half advocated us moving forward and resetting parameters, the other accused me of a stance that would jeopardize the health of Grandma.

The harsh reality is that COVID-19 is now endemic to our society, and we are at an inflection point on how to move forward and not just in the world of hockey. I believe it is time to makes choices to move us forward and return us to a normal way of life. How that is managed by our government is far above my pay grade, but in the toy aisle of life where professional sports sits, it’s time to move towards normalcy using common sense.

You recall common sense? Something that existed before case counts metrics and polarizing stances on what vaccines are or aren’t and what they do or don’t do.

Common sense tells me that when you’re vaccinated and you show no or little sign of severe illness, you’re not jeopardizing others who are vaccinated. The need to test players every day is now unnecessary and to disqualify them from playing solely off a positive test hasn’t stopped the spread of the virus.

Anecdotally, Los Angeles endured a scenario that saw a head cold pass through the team during its last roadtrip to Edmonton, where the temperatures were below zero Fahrenheit. The ramifications were that players who caught the cold had normal symptoms (stuffiness, coughing, runny nose) while those in protocols had no symptoms (I’m told that none of the current Kings in protocols are symptomatic).

The extended pause and increased protocols may be necessary, but they are not an action plan to move forward. The NBA and NFL have made a stance.

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver: “Frankly, we are having trouble coming up with what the logic would be behind pausing right now. As we look through these cases literally ripping through the country, let alone the rest of the world, I think we're finding ourselves where we sort of knew we were going to get to over the past several months, and that is this virus will not be eradicated, and we're going to have to learn to live with it.”

The NFL will only test only unvaccinated players and those experiencing possible symptoms of COVID-19 with present-day logic:

Dr. Allen Stills, NFL Medical Officer: “It’s not about loosening our standards. If anything, we’re just bringing a higher degree of precision in measuring ourselves against a more precise ruler.”

I suspect that no longer testing asymptomatic, vaccinated NHL players is on the horizon, but it needs to be so very soon. Yes, a simplistic solution to a problem with many layers but I will close asking the question for those fully vaccinated (and if you have a booster, even more so) and showing no signs of illness, do you test yourself every day to insure you’re not spreading the virus? If not, why are you asking NHL players to do so?

For those who state the Canadian government standards would preclude testing of only symptomatic players, in many cases it doesn’t affect NHL teams. As an example, after next week’s game against Vancouver, Los Angeles doesn’t face a Canadian team until March 30, 2022 in Edmonton. Like the NFL, precision needs to occur regarding testing, and it may not be fair for every single team but equity went out the window in mid-March of 2020.

There is an opportunity for the NHL and NHLPA to lead, as they did the first time we encountered COVID, and they can do so once again.