HYMAN PRICING HIMSELF OUT OF TORONTO?

TORONTO, ON — With the Toronto Maple Leafs in win-now made, their focus is on chasing a Stanley Cup this season.

The July expansion draft plays a factor, and the future does too, to a certain extent, but the Maple Leafs have their eyes on the prize and GM Kyle Dubas is expected to add a piece or two ahead of the April 12 trade deadline.

As we’ve reported, the Leafs have been linked to multiple players out there, including Nashville Predators forward Mikael Granlund and Anaheim Ducks winger Rickard Rakell. Dubas has poked around on several othes, too.

But as the team set their sights on a deep playoff run this summer, one key piece of the lineup might be playing in his last season with the club.

Winger Zach Hyman is in the final year of a four-year, $9 million contract and a source close to the team confirmed the Leafs haven’t had any talks with his camp about a contract extension. He entered this season putting up back-to-back 20+ goal campaigns while missing time due to injuries, and currently has eight goals and eight assists for 16 points in 27 games, putting him on pace for a career year in a normal season.

“He’s been really good for us,” Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe said of Hyman following Tuesday’s 4-3 loss to Winnipeg, where Hyman scored his eighth of the season. “He plays hard, big time goal he scored for us. He’s working, he’s doing his job for us. He’s been really good.”

What do second-line 40-50-point wingers command on the open market? Surely more than the $2.5 million salary he’s making this season ($2.25 million AAV).

Hyman, 28, is setting himself up for a nice payday and one contact close to the situation told me this week it’s doubtful the Leafs will be able to keep him in Toronto.

Using a proprietary algorithmic model, our Data Analyst Shane Kelly – whom you can catch weekly in our “Dirty Data” video segments where he and Aaron Ward combine analytics with the eye test – was able to compare Hyman’s performance over the last few seasons with others around the NHL to project his next AAV.

Taking 10 other players into account – ranging from Alex Killorn ($4.45M AAV) to Tyler Toffoli (3-years, $4.6M AAV in 2017) to Vladimir Namestnikov (2-years, $4M AAV in 2018) – the average contract was 3.5 years with an AAV of $4.1 million, or 5.21% of the salary cap based on the time some of his comparables signed.

Things can change between now and July 28, the first day of free agency, and the Leafs can move out some bodies to accommodate Hyman and an AAV between $4 million and $5 million or higher, but Toronto has just over $12.57 million in salary cap space going into next season and Frederik Andersen, Joe Thornton, Wayne Simmonds, Jimmy Vesey, Jason Spezza and Travis Boyd can also become UFAs in July – that’s a starting goalie, a top-six winger, and a fourth line, plus Hyman.

Toronto’s priority this off-season should be in goal. They haven’t had any significant talks with Andersen’s camp either and if he’s looking at $6 million per year or more, I don’t think he gets that with the Leafs. But losing a top-six winger also hurts, and the Maple Leafs could be losing two of them if Thornton hangs up his NHL skates after this campaign.

The Leafs also have to consider how well Hyman plays within the top-six. He’s an all-around forward who compliments Auston Matthews, John Tavares and Mitch Marner, and that stands to be difficult to replace in the off-season. A complimentary player is more difficult to find than you think, it’s not just a plug and play situation. Dubas and the Leafs have to weigh the intangibles.

This will be an issue for future-Dubas to worry about, but present-Dubas is well aware of that, and it’s something to keep an eye on when the time comes.

WHAT ABOUT ALEX IAFALLO?

Los Angeles Kings GM Rob Blake has said publicly he would like to get left wing Alex Iafallo signed to a contract extension. The 27-year-old cemented a place on L.A.’s top line alongside Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown, and while the Kings would like to upgrade their top-six, they clearly view Iafallo as a top-six player for them.

Like Hyman, Iafallo’s set to become an unrestricted free agent this July. The difference here is the Kings have a boatload of salary cap space and should have plenty of room to accommodate Iafallo’s next deal, providing the ask is within reason.

Kings EVP Jeff Solomon will play a big role in contract talks, as he usually does, and Iafallo’s comparables are almost identical to that of Hyman’s.

A three-to-four year deal in the $4 million to $4.5 million range seems likely, based on the analytics (thanks again, Shane Kelly), but we don’t know if the Kings prefer a longer term deal or if Iafallo’s camp will battle for that.

Either way, there’s a path to getting a deal done once the two sides hunker down and start negotiations.

IS PEARSON A TARGET FOR EDMONTON?

The Edmonton Oilers wouldn’t mind adding a mid-six forward in the coming weeks, but that could be a tough task.

Oilers GM Ken Holland addressed the media on Thursday and touched on a variety of topics, including the upcoming trade deadline. He was adamant that he won’t be looking to add depth this time around. Instead, if he makes a move in the next four weeks, it will be for a player “that can go into our lineup and have an impact.”

He also added a disclaimer, noting “it’s going to be difficult” to make a trade with a team south of the border because of the 14-day quarantine rule the Canadian government still has in place. Two weeks plus another five-to-seven days to practice and get back into the swing of things and you’re looking at three weeks before a player can jump into your lineup, a path Holland appears to be lukewarm about. And any money coming in would have to mean money going out, as the Oilers do not have much cap flexibility.

But he may have one easier option to pursue.

If/when the Vancouver Canucks decide to officially join the seller’s market, Tanner Pearson is a player that could fit Holland’s needs, he won’t have to quarantine, and he can slot into the team’s second- or third-line.

The Canucks plan on chatting with Pearson’s agent Joe Resnick about a contract extension, but if the two sides cannot come to terms on a new deal, he’ll be moved out by the deadline and could be a prime candidate for the Oilers.

BLUE JACKETS GM GOING CENTRE HUNTING

Columbus Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen has been open in admitting his desire to bring in a top centre, be it this season or during the summer.

During an intermission interview with FOX Sports Ohio on Saturday, Kekalainen hinted he may wait until the off-season before making a move to address the pivot position with his team.

“The cap’s going to stay flat for the foreseeable future and that’s going to add some challenges to cap-squeezed teams,” Kekalainen said, “so they may have to let some of their centres go for that reason because they just can’t fit them under their salary cap, but time will tell.”

I’m interested to see whom the Blue Jackets target this summer, since they’re clearly willing to take on salary and have pieces they’re willing to move, including forward Max Domi.

Looking ahead at some clubs with limited cap space next season, the Tampa Bay Lightning could be prime for the picking. They’ll most certainly finagle a trade with Seattle to take on someone’s contract (*cough* Tyler Johnson *cough*) but that gives them just under $1.5 million in cap space next season with Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman, among others, needing new deals. Would they consider moving Anthony Cirello and his $4.8 million AAV?

NO! CANADA

On Tuesday afternoon, I had reported that Eric Staal is open to being traded to a contender and is interested in chasing another Stanley Cup.

There are a number of teams that could use his services – the Florida Panthers, St. Louis Blues and Carolina Hurricanes, to name three – but there are a few teams in the North Division that could also benefit from adding him to their lineups.

Not so fast.

Staal owns a 10-team no-trade clause and has some say in where he ends up. According to a well-placed source, unless the quarantine rules in Canada change, Staal has no interest in being dealt to a Canadian team to spend two weeks in isolation and another week getting back in game-shape.

He is willing to be flexible with his NTC and Buffalo Sabres GM Kevyn Adams will present him with an opportunity once a deal arises. As much the Edmonton Oilers, Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs could use him, he’s more likely to be dealt to a U.S.-based contender by the trade deadline.