RANTANEN IS NEXT IN LINE FOR A MONSTER CONTRACT

TORONTO, ON — There are multiple stars playing on expiring contracts this season and there will no doubt be plenty of speculation about their futures until they are locked up to new deals.

Igor Shesterkin, Mitch Marner, Brock Boeser, Brad Marchand, Shea Theodore, Sam Bennett, Brent Burns, Brock Nelson and Adin Hill are the big names leading the pending unrestricted free agents list, another potential UFA-to-be is set to cash in on a mega contract.

Colorado Avalanche sniper Mikko Rantanen is in the final year of a six-year, $55.5 million contract that comes with a $9.25 million AAV. That number will climb significantly on his next deal, but just how high will dictate his future with the Avs.

Rantanen is coming off back-to-back 100+ point seasons and recorded 55 goals in 2022-23. He’s an elite talent and will command well over $12 million, per season, on his next contract. But how much over?

Taking this season’s salary cap into account, the Avalanche have just over $13.8 million in cap space in 2025-26 based on this season’s $88 million upper limit. With the cap expected to hit $92.5M next season, that creates $18.317M in space. From Colorado’s perspective, that’s still not a ton of space to get Rantanen inked, add some depth pieces, and get their goaltending position secured – Alex Georgiev is also in the last year of his contract.

The cap juggling will be up to GM Chris MacFarland, who did not seem overly worried about getting his star winger locked up when he addressed the media on Tuesday.

“No concern about it going into the season,” MacFarland said. “These are not easy deals to do. There’s the player obviously has the UFA right to go, and the club has to make smart decisions, both for the short-term and the long-term. So, we’re not going to comment on it daily or weekly, when there’s news, there’s news.”

Rantanen is represented by agent Andy Scott, who also reps Leon Draisaitl, among others, including Patrik Laine, Gabe Vilardi and Wyatt Johnston. On Sept. 3, the Edmonton Oilers locked up Draisaitl to an eight-year extension worth $112 million, giving him a $14M AAV that kicks in next season, which is just above 15% of next season’s projected $92.5M salary cap. Draisaitl has cracked 50+ goals three times over his career, thus far, and has five seasons with more than 100 points.

When Nathan MacKinnon signed his eight-year, $100.8 million contract, Year 1 of that deal had him just over 15% ($12.6M AAV) of the last season’s 83.5M cap ceiling.

For argument’s sake, let’s assume Rantanen comes in under $14M per season. If we continue to make assumptions – you know what happens when you assume, right? – Rantanen will earn more than MacKinnon, based on his percentage of the cap in Year 1 of his deal. I’m honestly not sure how much of an appetite the Avs have in giving Rantanen more than MacKinnon, but the cap is only going to go up and if we’re focusing on percentage of the cap, Rantanen’s possible demands are justified.

Taking the same percentage as MacKinnon’s first year and multiplying it by $92.5M, we come to an AAV of $13.958 million. I’m don’t think we see a number that high, but there’s an argument to be made that Rantanen’s next deal climbs over MacKinnon’s $12.6M annual figure.

MacFarland acknowledged that his phone line is always open, and Scott’s is too. It didn’t sound like a deal was imminent this past week, and if Rantanen’s camp pushes for $13M+ on his next deal, this could get dragged out until June.

THAT ‘EXPANSION’ WORD

Yes, yes. We know more expansion is on the horizon. I’ve been saying it since the puck officially dropped in Seattle. The NHL will grow to 34 clubs in the not-too-distant future, and eventually hit 36 soon after that before pumping the brakes.

A formal expansion process hasn’t begun, nor was it discussed at the Board of Governors meetings to start the month, because the NHL already knows its immediate options.

There are two interested ownership groups in Atlanta – though, depending on who you talk to, one is considered well ahead of the other – one in Houston, led by Houston Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta, and a prospective group in Arizona, led by Phoenix Suns owner Mat Ishbia, who wasn’t touching the NHL as long as Alex Meruelo was still screwing lurking around.

I was in Quebec City to start the month while the Los Angeles Kings played two exhibition games against the Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers. The Videotron Centre is as top-notch as it gets; you can house an NHL franchise in that building tomorrow. But the lack of local big corporate support remains a deterrent for the NHL.

I’d love to see an NHL club back in Quebec City, but it is simply not in the cards. Not for the next round of expansion, anyway.

With three potential cities and known interest from those in other markets like Kansas City, San Diego, Omaha, Oklahoma City, Portland and Cincinnati, the NHL has its options readily available. Ultimately, the NHL adding two more teams will come down to a number of factors, including: a) the right ownership group in the right market, b) a (new) arena that meets the NHL’s requirements, and c) timing.

NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman and NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly have said they are not in a rush to continue to expand. That’s true. Their definition of ‘rush’ may be loose, but there’s no need to jump into another market without all the right elements in play.

That being said, there may be as much as four billion reasons why the NHL adds two new clubs before the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires. And yes, the NHL and the NHLPA are motivated to extend the CBA well before the current deal runs out – expect significant chatter on that come next summer, if not sooner.

At a clip of between $1.5 billion to $2 billion per new franchise fees, there is obvious financial motivation to grow the League. But the time must be right.

Like the CBA, I suspect we may get to a point around the summer where the E-word is more prevalent.

HERE AND THERE

• Timothy Liljegren isn’t overly happy with his current position in Toronto. Sure, he’s locked into a two-year, $6 million deal, but like every pro athlete, he wants to play. The Maple Leafs aren’t itching to move him, they like their depth – and Liljegren may get into the lineup Wednesday against L.A., but they’re aware of his preference: play me or trade him. Depending on how the Leafs structure their D-corps later this season, he could be a piece they try to package for an upgrade elsewhere on the roster.

• The Anaheim Ducks will continue to gauge the trade market for some of their veterans like Cam Fowler, Frank Vatrano and John Gibson this season. Fowler reportedly preferred to start the season fresh on a new club, but Ducks GM Pat Verbeek isn’t going to rush any move. If Vatrano can come close to 30 goals again this season, after putting 37 last year, Anaheim will add another first-round pick to its cupboard.

• Easier said than done, but 8 x $12M might just about get it done for the New York Rangers and Igor Shesterkin.

• As I reported last week, Los Angeles is line to host the 2025 NHL Draft. The event will take place at the Peacock Theatre, located across the street from Crypto.com Arena. The NHL’s top brass was in L.A. this past week to go over plans for the event, as there are still a few items that need to be ironed out. One event that’s in limbo is the 2025 NHL Awards Show. Let’s not kid ourselves, the 2024 show was brutal. There are ways to properly heighten the event and actually make it entertaining, and that’s what the NHL is evaluating – how to do that. As of now, the 2025 show is 50/50 from happening. If it does, it’ll be in L.A. ahead of the Draft, but there’s a lot of soul searching that needs to be done first.

• On Saturday’s episode of “The Hot Stove” on SiriusXM NHL Network Radio with Ryan Paton, Dennis Bernstein and yours truly, I mentioned there is noise surrounding the Buffalo Sabres. To reiterate: if things fall off the rails in Buffalo this month, there is some chatter making the rounds of a GM change. My understanding is the Sabres have someone in mind for the position, but that doesn’t mean Kevyn Adams will be shown the door. If a new GM is brought in, Adams is expected to move up to a higher managerial title. The Sabres got a much-needed win on Saturday, but let’s see how the rest of the month unfolds.