DOES MARNER DETERMINE IF THE MAPLE LEAFS GO ALL-IN?

TORONTO, ON – The Toronto Maple Leafs are in an interesting position. At the start of play on Saturday, they are one point out of first in the Atlantic Division with two games in hand of the top-seeded Florida Panthers. They are much improved from last season, with a new head coach, a stronger defensive corps, and a deeper forward lineup. They have two major pending unrestricted free agents on the roster to worry about.

As we sit three weeks and six days until the March 7 trade deadline, is this the season the Maple Leafs decide to go all-in?

Star winger Mitch Marner is in line for a mega payday. Before the season started, he was looking for Auston Matthews type money – we’re talking in and around $13.25 million, per season, on a long-term extension. That was before Mikko Rantanen was dealt to Carolina, with the belief that he will earn around $14 million, per season, on his next contract, wherever he gets it. That was before the salary cap projections rise $25.5 million in three seasons and before he was on pace for 109 points on the campaign.

Marner loves Toronto, make no mistake about that. He wants to be a Maple Leaf for life. But he also wants to get paid. If Rantanen’s in the $14 million AAV neighbourhood, Marner isn’t far behind. Especially if Rantanen signs with the Hurricanes and Marner is the top free agent entering July 1. You could argue he’s in the same boat, though Leafs fans will disagree and cry about his playoff numbers without actually looking at them.

Marner has tallied 50 points in 57 career playoff games. Matthews has 48 points in 55 games. William Nylander has 43 points in 54. John Tavares has 24 in 38 playoff games with Toronto.

Tavares, like Marner, also needs a new contract. There has been chatter of a three-year extension in place that requires some finetuning, but nobody will confirm. His AAV will drop, likely in the $7 million range.

With $31.32 million in cap space next season, the Leafs have plenty of room to get Marner, Tavares and rising star Matthew Knies, who can become a restricted free agent, locked up. Whether they want to give Marner more than $13 million per year is unclear.

All this to say: it might be time for Leafs GM Brad Treliving and Co. to go all-in.

It is no secret Toronto is in the market for a second-line centre. They have been on the hunt for months, while also exploring their options at left wing. They’d also like to upgrade their third line. With limited cap space, though, it is going to take some expert craftsmanship to fill their needs.

The Leafs want to understand their options and have been casting a wide net. Treliving has kicked the tires on forwards like Brock Nelson of the New York Islanders, Casey Mittlestadt of the Colorado Avalanche, Dylan Cozens of the Buffalo Sabres, Scott Laughton of the Philadelphia Flyers, Brandon Tanev and Yanni Gourde of the Seattle Kraken, and Ryan Donato of the Chicago Blackhawks, among others.

Obviously, the prices vary based on the player and his contractual status. We’ve known for two seasons that Laughton has been on Toronto’s radar, but the price hasn’t really changed. For example, the Flyers want a first-round pick or a prospect with equivalent value for Laughton, if they move him anywhere. And I don’t get the sense the team is interested in moving someone like Fraser Minten, Ben Danford or Easton Cowan for a bottom-six forward.

If the Leafs feel comfortable that they can get Marner locked up, be it before the deadline or ahead of July 1, they may proceed with caution. If there is even the slightest amount of doubt, though, now might be the time to go for it as their window may start to close if they lose a 100-point calibre player for nothing.

This is not an envious position for any management team. There is a lot of risk, no matter the direction Treliving takes. The next 27 days could paint a clearer picture of the franchise’s immediate and future success, and a lot may ride on Marner’s ultimate decision.

DOBSON ALERT?

Reports surfaced late this week suggesting the New York Islanders are shopping stud defenceman Noah Dobson, who is currently on LTIR and can become a restricted free agent July 1.

Lou Lamoriello doesn’t let things slip out, but when they do (from others), he isn’t too happy about it. Believe me, I know all too well. My understanding on the situation from those across the league is that the Islanders may not be shopping Dobson in the technical sense, but they are indeed willing to take calls on him and the price tag is very high. My guess is the Isles want a top-line forward in return.

The Vancouver Canucks expressed interest in Dobson earlier in the season, but I just don’t see a fit there, at the moment. No, they aren’t going to trade Elias Pettersson for Dobson.

We’ll see if this gains any traction before the deadline.

With respect to the Islanders reportedly tabling a three-year offer to keep Nelson, as I mentioned on The Hot Stove earlier today on SiriusXM NHL Network Radio, I can confirm that as of today, no such offer has been presented.

Nelson, 33, is eligible to become a UFA this summer. He owns a 16-team no-trade list and while he’s loved his time on Long Island, the Islanders haven’t committed in either direction – try to sign him or look to trade him.

My read on Nelson’s situation, as well as Kyle Palmieri’s, is Lamoriello will wait until deadline week before making either potential rental piece available, if the team is too far back of a playoff spot. This is similar to how the New Jersey Devils approached Tyler Toffoli before moving him to Winnipeg last season.

HERE AND THERE

• There is a strong belief that, barring a sudden out-of-left-field change, Drew Doughty will be joining Canada at the 4 Nations Face-Off. If there’s any setback, it seems like Mackenzie Weegar may be on deck. Up front, if Sidney Crosby can’t make the tournament, Mark Scheifele will be called from the bullpen.

• Speaking of 4 Nations, all eyes are on Canucks captain Quinn Hughes, who suffered an oblique injury this week, and may be unable to suit up for the U.S.

• Montreal’s Joel Armia has been generating a lot of attention from contenders lately. He has an appealing $3.4 million cap hit, is a right shot, and can become a UFA in July.

• Earlier in the season, the Buffalo Sabres told some teams they weren’t interested in moving Alex Tuch. That hasn’t stopped clubs from trying. There is a lot of noise, and maybe that’s all it ends up being, that Buffalo is looking to do something big. They have also relayed that they won’t move Dylan Cozens to certain teams, as they don’t see a return that fits. I believe, for now, Calgary and Nashville are two of those teams.

• The Edmonton Oilers are still exploring the market for depth adds, including on the blueline. I still wonder about John Gibson being an option in net, but there doesn't seem to be much going on there right now.

• With news the St. Louis Blues are listening on captain Brayden Schenn, you can add Pavel Buchnevich and his new contract to the mix, as well. Sounds like St. Louis is dangling him, again. If the Blues try to do anything major, though, I really wonder about Jordan Kyrou.

• All is quiet on the Ivan Provorov contract front. The Columbus Blue Jackets would like to hold on to him, and he continues to enjoy his time there, but as of today, there hasn’t been any progress on an extension.

• There is a lot of interest in Rickard Rakell, but the Pittsburgh Penguins aren’t going to get rid of everyone and he’s been a big bright spot for them this season. Could this be a ‘sell high’ scenario, or do the Pens value him enough to keep him?

• The Stars may not be finishing adding, but GM Jim Nill said on the team’s intermission broadcast Friday that if they make any other moves, it will likely happen right before the deadline. Miro Heiskanen’s health and recovery timeline factor in big time.