WILL THE PLAYOFFS PASSOVER AGAIN IN LA?

LOS ANGELES, CA — Training Camp school has completed across the NHL and it’s no different in El Segundo, where the Los Angeles Kings franchise seeks a return to the postseason for the first time since 2018.

In anticipation of Opening Night, I revert to the early days of camp, where the general atmosphere around the team was one of hopeful optimism, yet depending on who you speak, the expectations of hockey after Game 82 range from certainty to noncommittal.

It’s no surprise the strongest voice of a return to the postseason comes from Drew Doughty, whose motivation follows three tracks. In addition to wanting the opportunity to win a third Stanley Cup, Doughty’s personal goals were important enough to disclose in his first chat with the local media. His entry into the Norris Trophy conversation and a berth on the Canadian Olympic team will add fuel to the fire Doughty says has not been extinguished despite enduring team underperformance and his plummet from his status as one of the elite defensemen in the NHL.

If Doughty is this team’s fire, then Anze Kopitar is its ice, and it was reflected in his opinion on the team’s playoffs chances.

Now 34 years old, Kopitar comes off another season in which he was its leading scorer, leader in time-on-ice and most valuable player. Even with the assumption that Kopitar’s 21:11 ice time logged last season (though it seems a heavy total, it’s only seconds above his career average – 21:03) will be reduced with the presence of GM Rob Blake’s biggest Free Agent Frenzy score in center Phillip Danault, Kopitar, along with Doughty, is an irreplaceable player.

The Slovenian center was vocal in his final comments at the end of last season, imploring Blake to make additions of established NHL level talent. Blake obliged by adding Danault, Viktor Arvidsson (who appears to be the aggressive shoot-first, ask questions later winger he’s lacked) and Alexander Edler, yet the captain doesn’t see a clear path to the post-season. His thinking is the team needs to be in the chase for the playoffs in the stretch run in a Pacific division that has no clear cut three seed behind the Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers.

At the other end of the spectrum, Coach Todd McLellan was disinterested in talking about the “P” word in the opening days of camp, leaning on a take he’s maintained since day one of his regime – the need for continuous improvement.

“We better get tomorrow. The organization has to get better. We’re moving forward but we need to improve before we declare ourselves playoff ready.”

One of the holidays celebrated in my Jewish religion is Passover – commemorating the Jews exodus from enslavement in Egypt. Part of the holiday rituals are The Four Questions asked by the youngest child at the meal, the seder, commemorating the journey out of slavery.

Using that as a theme, there are four questions that need to be answered to determine if the post season will become a reality in Los Angeles this Spring:

Q: Who emerges from the prospect pool?

With all the platitudes paid to the depth of the prospect pool, it’s yet to yield a breakthrough offensive player. The time has arrived to have another organization sit atop of the prospect rankings unless you’re looking to win a fantasy prospect pool.

Over the space of six drafts from 2015 through 2020, of the 42 players selected, the leading goal scorer the recently waived Austin Wagner (22) and the second leading goal scorer is no longer with the organization (Erik Cernak – 15). In fairness, the production of draft picks isn’t always an indicator of team success – Washington has produced a stunning 2 goals (from one player – Jonas Siegenthaler) over the same period but the Capitals are a perennial playoff team and won the 2018 Stanley Cup. For a team that heavily promotes its future, the present is at hand and the need to see production at the NHL level is now.

Quinton Byfield – who looked the part of an NHL player in camp – will have his coming-out party delayed by a broken ankle suffered on October 5. With no other prospect making an offensive impact other than the hat trick registered against Anaheim the night after Byfield’s injury, it’s the second half of the season where if at all when impact from the prospect pool happens.

Q: Will The Toddfather, Part 3 be a hit?

The third season of McLellan’s reign in Los Angeles must produce a better product than the third version of the Mafia Classic. With full disclosure that I am a fan of the coach and with the knowledge that the roster he was given in the first two seasons not close to playoff quality, the season is a referendum on the five-year deal he was given by this management team.

The organization used cap space to bring in established players who, although not stars, improvement the depth chart from last season. McLellan has declared this team will be more aggressive on the forecheck in order to force the issue, but will a change in style result in improved offense? Specifically, can the number of high-danger chances increase, and will the middle of the ice be used efficiently, two areas Los Angeles was among the worst in the league last season. If they can improve those aspects of the offense and with the weakness (on paper) of the Pacific Division, the 14-point gap between their last season standing and the final playoff spot must be closed significantly if not entirely closed. A three seed is not an unreasonable ask for the coach, general manager and team president.

Q: Does size matter?

If you’re looking to win the Cup, size does matter on the blueline. Tampa Bay had it and so did their opponents in the last two Finals (Montreal and Dallas). Los Angeles is not a Cup contender due in part to its lack of size on the blueline, a characteristic needed to progress to that status.

The size issue may be an impediment to a championship but not to winning more games than the last two seasons due to 1) McLellan’s expressed want for his team to be more aggressive both on the forecheck and activating the defensemen (welcomed from both a performance and entertainment aspect) and 2) the 1-2 defensive punch that Kopitar and Danault will provide. Pairing a Selke winner with a Selke candidate will insure that for 40 minutes a night, the middle of the ice will be well defended, an essential path to victory.

That said, watching the L.A. preseason games is a reminder this roster is at the other end of the spectrum from the championship ones from a size and intimidation standpoint, not yet a detriment but surely something opponents will test in the season’s opening weeks.

Q: Is the rebuild over?

So, do you think that arrival of three established players signals that the rebuild is complete in Los Angeles?

Maybe.

I’d say it’s substantially complete as opposed to fully done, as completion would come with a) Byfield installed as the third line center, playing 15 minutes a night (the same development path that Chicago’s Kirby Dach traveled – taking his lumps in the first half of his 2019-20 then blossoming) and b) making the one big trade using the prospects and cap space they will have again this coming summer.

The one refrain I kept hearing during camp was, “there’s a more talent on the ice, where will they all play?” The answer should be “they all won’t play in L.A.”

Byfield is the only elite player in the system, using the others to acquire the top pair defenseman or high-level goal-scorer would bring the rebuild to its end.

SEASON PREDICTION

Though my track record for picking Stanley Cup champions is lousy (this year the unfortunate team is the New York Islanders), I’ve been spot on for the last couple of seasons regarding the home team. The question is if it’s essential for the Kings to make the post-season: a point not actively discussed, Blake is in the final year of his contract and if reaching the playoffs is a requirement for a contract extension.

If it is, maybe we’ll see aggression at the trade deadline if, as I expect, the team will be in the mix for a post-season berth. The marker of progression this season is to be in the position to be a buyer to enhance its playoff hopes, not contending for the division title.

My somewhat-educated guess: there will be improvement and a significant one (last season record was the equivalent of a 72-point finish over 82 games) but not quite enough to get to the 92-94 point level that historically gets a team to the division three seed (in the last full season, Vegas placed third with 93 points). Even with an improved roster, a 20-point standings jump is a massive one and if they accomplish that, the Toddfather should be in the conversation for the Jack Adams Award. What should not occur is the team being in the conversation for the first-overall pick again, that would be the measure of failure.

WE’RE BACK!

Two of my favorite projects have commenced for the 2021-22 season – the third season of Kings Of The Podcast with The Mayor John Hoven has kicked off with new and interesting images to promote it.

Additionally, the return of The Hot Stove powered by The Fourth Period made its SiriusXM NHL Network Radio Channel 91 return on Oct. 9 with my mates Dave Pagnotta and Ryan Paton.

In addition to these vehicles – expect more TFP video content, a plethora of radio and TV appearances around North America.

AND FINALLY...

Leaving you with some humor….

I’m standing behind Rob Blake on Day 1 of Training Camp and his cell phone rings...

DB: “It’s Kevyn Adams!!”