January 25, 2023 | 11:40am ET
By Anthony Di Marco, TheFourthPeriod.com

WHAT A CAUFIELD EXTENSION COULD LOOK LIKE

Cole Caufield, forward

MONTREAL, QC — Before a shoulder injury abruptly ended Cole Caufield’s season, the Montreal Canadiens’ dynamic forward was in talks with the club about a contract extension.

Caufield, 22, was drafted 14th overall by the Canadiens in the 2019 NHL Draft. Prior to being sidelined this season, Caufield had tallied 25 goals and 36 points through 46 games. Over his career, Caufield has registered 84 points over 123 games – a .68 point-per-game rate.

Last summer saw a ton of long-term extensions dished out to younger players as teams looked to bet on potential and lock in some cost certainty before the salary cap shoots up – assuming the current projections hold – in the summer of 2024. Kevin Fiala, Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas and Tage Thompson are some of the players that received said extensions, although all are older than Caufield and are not perfect comparisons.

Should the Canadiens and Caufield look to go long term (i.e. eight years) the best comparison is Tim Stutzle of the Ottawa Senators.

Stutzle, 21, was drafted third overall in the 2020 NHL Draft by the Senators, a year after Caufield. Unlike Caufield, Stutzle made to the jump into the NHL right away, which is why both players are coming out of their entry-level contracts at the same time. The difference is, Stutzle locked in his extension last summer.

The Senators and Stutzle agreed on an eight-year, $66.8 million ($8.35 million AAV) contract before the season began. At the time the contract was signed, Stutzle had registered 87 points over 132 career games – a .66 PP/G clip. His production has heavily spiked this year, having 43 points through the first 42 games heading in Tuesday night’s action.

The situations aren’t completely identical, as Stutzle is a centre (which always carries more value) and locked in his contract one year in advance. The other factor in all of this is Canadiens’ centre (and captain) Nick Suzuki.

Suzuki, 23, is in the first year of an eight-year, $63 million contract he signed with former Canadiens General Manager Marc Bergevin 15 months ago. His contract carries an AAV of $7.875 million, which is the highest cap hit on the Canadiens (not counting goaltender Carey Price, who is on LTIR and not expected to play again).

It is not always the case, but could the Canadiens want an “internal cap” with Suzuki being at the high end of it?

We’ve seen this over the years, at times, specifically with the Boston Bruins and using Patrice Bergeron as an internal cap for years before ultimately signing defenseman Charlie McAvoy to his current contract. It’s unclear if that’s the case in Montreal, but it is something to at least consider.

All this being said, should the Canadiens go long-term with Caufield, his AAV is likely begin around the $8 million mark.

The other option here is for Canadiens and Caufield to go the shorter term route, which we saw last offseason with Dallas Stars forward Jason Robertson.

Robertson, 23, was drafted in the second round by the Stars in the 2017 NHL Draft. He’s two years older than Caufield and took a longer path to get to the NHL, only becoming a regular during the 2020-21 campaign. He signed a four-year deal at the beginning of last October and has an AAV of $7.75 million.

The situation with Robertson is different, as he had scored 125 points in 128 career games (.98 PP/G) at the time he signed his extension. It’s unlikely Caufield would get an AAV that high should he only go four years.

If we look back a few years, Brock Boeser’s three-year, $17.625 million ($5.875 million AAV) that he signed in 2017 may be a better comparison.

At the time he signed his post-ELC deal in 2019, Boeser had registered 116 points through 140 games – a .83 PP/G rate. The scoring pace is still higher than Caufield’s but way more comparable than that of Robertson.

With the cap having gone up by $1 million (and likely by a few more million ahead of next season) it would stand to reason that Caufield’s AAV may creep higher than $6 million, especially given Caufield’s goals paced – he was on pace for 46 goals over 82 games – as opposed to Boeser, who capped at 29 goals before signing his deal in 2019.

Taking all of this into consideration, should Caufield get a three- or four-year deal, I’d imagine the AAV will be in the $6 million to $6.5 million range. He hasn’t produced at the same levels of Boeser and Robertson, but his goal production and production under Head Coach Martin St. Louis over the last 13 months may get his AAV up a bit.

What will be interesting to watch is what avenue Caufield and the Canadiens ultimately go down, because either, he is due a steep increase on his next contract.