January 9, 2023 | 5:00pm ET
By Anthony Di Marco, TheFourthPeriod.com
FLYERS OPEN TO MOVING HAYES, PROVOROV FUTURE UNCERTAIN
Kevin Hayes, forward
MONTREAL, QC — Healthy Scratch. All-Star. And now, trade candidate. Kevin Hayes has taken the term “rollercoaster season” to new heights this season.
In discussion with those close to the situation, I was told over the weekend the Flyers are in fact open to moving Hayes, who has three years left on his $50 million contract after this season.
Despite putting together the best career offensive start to a season (35 points in 39 games, so far) the Flyers – especially Head Coach John Tortorella – have not been enthralled with the 30-year-old centre’s overall play this year. His defensive play and performance without the puck have specifically bothered the club, landing Hayes on the left wing for the better part of the past two months, a position he never played prior to joining the Flyers in 2019.
According to one source, the Flyers know it will be tough to trade Hayes and his full $7.142 million salary cap hit in-season given the NHL’s current economic climate. With more than half the league operating in LTIR and being unable to accrue cap space ahead of the trade deadline, there aren’t many teams (contenders, specifically) able to absorb Hayes’ full cap hit.
Asking around about this last month, a Western Conference executive told me he believed, given Hayes’ production the last 10 months, there would be a market for the veteran pivot, even with the money and term owed on his deal.
The Flyers might be willing to retain salary on Hayes’ contract, which could create more options. Going back to the start of the 2018-19 season, Hayes has averaged roughly 55 points per 82 games. Should the Flyers retain 30 percent of his AAV and make him a $5 million player, would that not be good value for that level of offensive production? Given what kind of money and term second line centres go for on the open market (i.e. Vincent Trocheck and Ryan Strome last summer), getting Hayes for three years at $5 million per would seem to be good cost certainty.
There has been speculation of a potential buyout by Larry Brooks of the New York Post and on the “32 Thoughts” podcast, but I can’t imagine the Flyers have much of an appetite for that. Worst case, the Flyers would be better off retaining half of Hayes’ AAV than having six years of dead money via a buyout. At a $3.5 million cap hit, it would be hard to imagine a contender balking at that figure – depending on the trade cost, of course.
There is also the matter of Hayes’ trade protection, which could throw a monkey wrench into the operation. Hayes’ contract includes a 12-team no-trade list, meaning a third of the league would be off the table for General Manager Chuck Fletcher.
In terms of potential landing spots, the most obvious short-term option, in my eyes, is the Colorado Avalanche. The Avs, who have battled an obscene number of injuries all season, have struggled down the middle after the departure of Nazem Kadri via free agency and could use Hayes as an option on the second line. Of course, Hayes would not be a rental, so Colorado would have to make sure the cap would not only work for this season, but next as well when Nathan MacKinnon’s extension contract kicks in.
Other potential fits could include the Boston Bruins (his hometown), Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild, as all could use an upgrade down the middle ahead of the playoffs. Again, all this being dependent on Hayes not including any of these teams on his no-trade list.
Potential rental names like Bo Horvat and Jonathan Toews will likely take up the lion’s share of teams’ interest as the deadline approaches, but teams could look at Hayes as a fall back option should they strike out on those two.
If a move isn’t ironed out ahead of the March 3 deadline, the Flyers could reengage in the summer when moving money becomes more palatable.
Provorov on the move?
As reported by Elliotte Friedman on Monday’s episode of “32 Thoughts,” Ivan Provorov “could be a trade candidate” and sighted “mutual frustration” in the relationship.
This does not come as a surprise, as Provorov’s name has been kicked around the rumour mill for the better part of a year. Reaching out to those close to Provorov and the Flyers, it is unclear if he has formally requested a trade. One thing appears clear is a move is not considered imminent.
As I’ve reported going back to last year’s trade deadline, the Flyers’ hope and intention has not been trade Provorov. While he is not deemed untouchable, there hasn’t been a point where he was being actively shopped. Even when Travis Sanheim’s $50 million extension was signed – which added significant term to an already loaded left side on the backend for Philly for years to come – I was told it would have no impact on Provorov’s future.
Clearly, another losing season has had its effects, and both sides may be looking for greener pastures.
As Friedman said on his podcast, the situation is really two-fold. On one hand, the team (under both Fletcher and former-GM Ron Hextall) was unable to get Provorov a legitimate partner, save for the one year of Matt Niskanen in 2019-20. When looking around the NHL, teams routinely make sure to secure stable partners for their young, up -and-coming defensemen. Cale Makar has had it with Devon Toews; Miro Heiskanen with Esa Lindell; Charlie McAvoy with Zdeno Chara and now Hampus Lindholm; it happens all the time.
But on the other hand, after two-and-a-half regular-seasons and three calendar years removed from his stellar play in the 2020 playoffs, the onus does fall at the feet of Provorov. Yes, he hasn’t had adequate partners and yes, the team hasn’t been good, but as one hockey figure said to me, “great players make those around them better.”
As one of Provorov’s biggest advocates for years, I concede that the player can no longer be considered a No.1 after earning that reputation in 2019-20. I still believe, and have been told this by several executives across the league, that Provorov is a solid No.2 defenceman on a contender. Given the current situation in Philadelphia – the team is in the early stages of a rebuild, even if they have yet to admit it – and not with the right horses to properly slot Provorov on the backend, he will continue to be overly deployed and struggle.
I’ve heard over the years that Provorov is a very competitive guy, which was indicative when he played through a severe shoulder injury at 20 years old in the first-round of the 2018 playoffs against the Pittsburgh Penguins. He was arguably the team’s best skater in the 2020 playoffs and anchored an otherwise struggling backend alongside Niskanen.
In seasons where the Flyers have been near the top of the Eastern Conference (2017-18 and 2019-20) he has played to the level of a true No.1 that everyone expected of him when drafted seventh-overall in the 2015 NHL Draft.
Unfortunately, Philadelphia is not longer a competitive team and likely won’t be one for a few years. Already 25 years old and, as Friedman alluded to, on a very reasonable contract ($6.75 million AAV for two more years) it may be time to expedite the rebuilding process by moving him. Aside from Carter Hart and maybe Travis Konency, there’s no bigger trade chip the Flyers have than Provorov.
What About Konecny?
Entering this season, Travis Konecny found himself in the same boat as Provorov: a 25-year-old former first-round pick coming off back-to-back disappointing seasons.
The difference has been that Konecny has completely bought into what Tortorella and the Flyers are selling and is on pace for his best statistical season of his career; he already has 21 goals and 41 points through 34 games. Many have wondered, given his age and the current situation the Flyers find themselves in, if Konecny could be an option to be moved for a heavy haul to shift focus to the longer term.
After asking around about this, I don’t get the sense the Flyers are in a hurry to move Konecny, given how well he’s played under Tortorella, the big steps he’s taken as a leader and still being young enough to be part of the core going forward. That being said, Konecny is by no means untouchable, and I don’t think the Flyers would hesitate to move him should the right, significant offer came around.
I heard over the summer that some in the Flyers front office thought Konecny had “so much more to give” compared to what he showed the last two seasons. So far that theory has proven to be true, and he is very well liked by his peers, coaching staff and management. While not impossible, it would take a near can’t-miss trade to see Konecny moved.
Konecny has two years remaining on his contract carrying an AAV of $5.5 million.
Three’s a crowd (in net)
It feels weird to say, but the Flyers may have themselves a plethora of talent in goal.
Between Carter Hart, Felix Sandstrom and now, Samuel Ersson, the Flyers have three NHL goaltenders at their disposal.
Hart, 24, is still the team’s bonafide No.1 and has had a very good season to date considering what he has had to work with, sporting a .908 save percentage.
A third-round pick in 2015, the 25-year-old Sandstrom has played “fine” this season with a .888 SV%, and in the eyes of management is an NHL backup.
The true wildcard has been Ersson, who turned heads in Lehigh Valley this season and is very well liked by the Flyers’ brass. A fifth-round pick in 2018, Ersson had a .910 SV% with the Phantoms in the AHL this season before being recalled; he has a .905 SV% in four appearances with the Flyers.
Ersson’s play this season has made a (good) problem for management. As Anthony SanFilippo mentioned on the “Snow the Goalie” podcast, many felt he was the best goaltender in camp but ended up being the victim as the only goaltender not having to not clear waivers.
To give them some more time to make their decision, the Flyers assigned Sandstrom to the AHL last week to get him some game reps and avoid having to put him through waivers; he will be back in two weeks time. But when he does come back, what gives?
According to a team source, the plan as of now is to send Ersson back to the Phantoms once Sandstrom returns from his conditioning assignment. As SanFilippo mentioned, as well, the Flyers don’t have any other NHL-caliber goalies at their disposal (Troy Grosenick is hurt) and don’t want to risk losing Sandstrom on waivers. Unfortunately for Ersson, he will likely be the victim once again due to contractual reasons.
Overall, the Flyers feel very good about their goaltending situation both now and in the long term. In addition to the three goaltenders already in North America, the Flyers feel strongly about their two goaltending prospects Ivan Fedotov and Alexei Kolosov playing in the KHL – the former was supposed to make his way to North America before being infamously detained by Russian authorities; his future is still foggy at this juncture.
Kolosov, 21, has a .914 SV% with Minsk Dynamo this season. He was a third-round pick of the Flyers in 2021.
