RISTOLAINEN INJURY COULD AFFECT DEADLINE

MONTREAL, QC — It was just two days ago that Philadelphia Flyers defenceman Rasmus Ristolainen cracked the TFP Trade Watch List at #27. Now, 48 hours later, any thought of him potentially being on the move ahead of the NHL Trade Deadline has been squashed.

As I reported earlier today, several sources have told TFP that Ristolainen is expected to be out a minimum of one month, though it wouldn’t shock me if it is longer than that.

Ristolainen, 29, has been the subject of trade speculation since I reported the Toronto Maple Leafs had interest in him two months ago. His trade stock has driven up over the last several weeks, as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported last week. Though the interest was there, Ristolainen’s contract was proving to be an obstacle; he is signed until 2027 at an AAV of $5.1 million.

An off-season deal seemed more likely given the contract and, as mentioned on the “32 Thoughts” podcast, it would allow an acquiring team to better integrate him over a full training camp. While a summer move always seemed more likely, it wasn’t completely out of the question that he could’ve been moved sooner.

The Maple Leafs have been circling for several months but seem to be waiting for the Chris Tanev domino to fall before shifting their focus elsewhere. When the Leafs and Flyers spoke in December, I’m told Toronto GM Brad Treliving wanted salary retention on Ristolainen. Based on those I’ve spoken with around the NHL, Ristolainen’s ideal AAV falls in the $3.5 million neighborhood – requiring north of 30% retention by the Flyers. But until the Leafs get clarity on what the Calgary Flames are doing with their rental defencemen, it seemed like talks had been in a holding pattern with the Flyers.

Speaking of the Flames, they are another team that have expressed some level of interest in Ristolainen. This did surprise me to hear, as I was told by a source out west that important people in the Flames’ front office were not fans of Ristolainen “going back to his days in Buffalo.” I’m of the belief that the Flames checked in on Ristolainen because of the cost certainty that comes with him; keeping players has proven to be tough for Calgary in recent years, so the three-year term on Ristolainen is likely appealing for that reason.

While Flames GM Craig Conroy did reach out to the Flyers, I’m told talks never got serious, as the Flames need to take care of their internal house cleaning before making such a move. Ristolainen was said not to be a favourite of the Flames for “the price tag;” does that mean they want retention as well? Either way, should the Flames revisit talks with the Flyers, it was always more likely to be in the summer after they got resolutions on Tanev and Noah Hanifin.

Then come the Vancouver Canucks, who have been the most active team thus far in true Jim Rutherford fashion. They reached out on Ristolainen – and other Flyers defensemen, according to TFP’s David Pagnotta – after the Nikita Zadorov acquisition; according to one person, the Canucks have not been pleased with Zadorov and were looking at potentially flipping him for a right shot. Ristolainen’s term would’ve been complicated for the Canucks, but perhaps it was a can they were willing to kick down the road.

Ristolainen’s injury all but kills these trade talks, although I’d expect some of the talks to be revisited in the summer. But what it does do is affect the trade market for defensemen, specifically Sean Walker.

Walker, 29, is on an expiring contract with an AAV of $2.65 million. His name has been out there for some time, with the Edmonton Oilers, Dallas Stars, Tampa Bay Lightning and Maple Leafs among the teams circling. While Ristolainen’s injury doesn’t completely rule out Walker being moved, I’d imagine the Flyers will be even more firm on their price tag now.

The Flyers have not wavered on their ask for Walker: a first-round pick or a package equating to similar value. For example, in the case of the Oilers, I’d imagine a second-round selection and a prospect (defenceman Philip Broberg, anyone) is something the Flyers would heavily consider. Given where the Flyers are in the standings (third in Metropolitan division) and Ristolainen now on the shelf, they are not going to cut the legs out from under their defense unless they get what they’re looking for.

As Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek suggested on “32 Thoughts” last week, extending Walker seemed to be on the table if the Flyers were able to move off of Ristolainen’s contract. Sources have told TFP that the Walker camp is looking for an AAV of at least $5 million; the Flyers would essentially be re-allocating Ristolainen’s money to Walker, in such a scenario. While all options are on the table, I’ve heard, I tend to think extending Walker will be difficult given Ristolainen’s injury and subsequent removal from the Trade Market until the off-season.

In the case of Nick Seeler, the Flyers are still planning to re-sign him as long as the money is right. Talks have yet to pick up, but I’d imagine an AAV in the $2.5M-$3M range is likely the sweet spot.

Flyers Looking at Centres

It is no secret the Flyers lack depth down the middle of the ice, and the front office has been doing their due diligence around the league in order to address it. I’ve been told that the Flyers have been looking at younger centremen across the NHL, potentially needing a new home and buy-low options to jump on.

Buffalo’s Peyton Krebs is a name the Flyers reportedly like, and while he is a player the Flyers have scouted, it is important to note there haven’t been any talks between the two clubs.

Casey Mittlestadt of the Sabres and Cody Glass of the Nashville Predators are two names the Flyers have taken looks on, but I’m told that neither player is of interest to the team.

Anaheim Ducks forward Trevor Zegras has seen his name out there the last several weeks, obviously having people speculate if the Flyers would pounce on it. Checking in on this, I don’t get the sense Zegras is an option for the Flyers at this time. I don’t think this has to do one way or another on how they feel about Zegras as a player, but more to do with them not feeling they have the assets to pry him out of Anaheim. Things can certainly change, but I wouldn’t expect any traction with Zegras and the Flyers in the near future.

Dallas Stars’ prospect pivots Maverik Bourque and Logan Stankhoven are two names I’ve heard many are high on, though I can’t say for certain the Flyers have scouted or have interest in. I don’t imagine the Stars are in any rush to trade them but, as Pagnotta has reported, they are in the market for a right shot defenceman. With Evgeni Dadonov out long term, they may be looking for a forward, too.

Again, important not to rush to any conclusions, but the Flyers are doing their due diligence across the league on young centremen.

Full Cap Relief for Hart

Per our friends at Cap Friendly, the Flyers have gotten full salary cap relief for Carter Hart, who is on an indefinite leave of absence. He has been shifted to “Non Roster” and counts for nothing against the salary cap, allowing the team to accrue cap space.

The Flyers project to have about $7.9 million in cap space by the Trade Deadline. They’re also prepared to shift Ryan Ellis to LTIR if need be, which would open up an additional $6.25 million. I was told last week the Flyers would “explore” taking on less than ideal contracts to help push trades over the finish line if need be; having a potential $14 million-plus in cap space to weaponize would certainly give them a lot of leverage to do so.

Laying Groundwork with Konecny

As Friedman reported on “32 Thoughts” last week, the Flyers have already started laying groundwork for Travis Konecny’s next contract, which he can extend on July 1.

Konecny, 26, is entering the final year of a six-year, $33 million contract he signed with the Flyers in September of 2019. He has proven to be the club’s best player the last 15 months and, speculatively speaking, I believe has a real chance to be the next captain of the team should he commit to them long term.

Speaking with a team source, the Flyers are of the belief that Konecny’s next AAV should be starting with a “9.” Speaking with a league source, something in the “9s is a good guess” with Konecny right in his prime and the cap rising. Sam Reinhart’s extension with the Florida Panthers is expected to be in the low nines – he won’t surpass Matthew Tkachuk’s number – which should help bring Konecny’s number down.

This being said, it wouldn’t shock me to see the Konecny camp start in the high 10s given the salary cap rising. By the time Konecny’s next contract kicks in (2025-26), the cap will be above $92 million, according to Cap Friendly. Konecny’s cap will likely use this to drive the price up and point to Reinhart signing for less due to Florida being a no tax state. I find it hard to believe that Konecny’s AAV will get into the eight digits when all is said and done, but I expect his camp to fully try and push it there.