DEFENSIVE DOMINOES WAITING TO FALL

MONTREAL, QC — As the NHL approaches the midway mark of December and nears completion of a third of the 2023-24 regular-season, trade talks have begun to pick up.

In the first bit of the season, rearguards seem to be at the focal point of most negotiations.

Entering the season with three pending UFA defencemen, the Calgary Flames have been at the centre of the action. Kicking off the party a few weeks back when they sent Nikita Zadorov to the Vancouver Canucks for 2026 third-round pick and a 2024 fifth-round pick, there were some I spoke to in the NHL that were blown away by the return. Zadorov, though just a third pair defenceman on a Stanley Cup contender, set the market for defencemen in that general tier; the bar was not set incredibly high.

Speaking with a source close to the situation in Calgary, the move was made to create salary cap flexibility as the primary goal. The mediocre return for Zadorov was worth the immediate cap relief that Calgary instantly got, not having to rely solely on LTIR to dress a full line up. The Zadorov transaction allows the Flames to carry a 23-man roster, which will give their management team a chance to see younger players and gives them the ability to be a third-party broker ahead of the trade deadline if the opportunity presents itself.

Additionally, Calgary could look to add some pieces (with term) to its roster if there is a fit that makes sense, as TFP’s David Pagnotta has mentioned over the past several weeks.

The salary-related reasoning behind the Zadorov trade ties in directly with the Toronto Maple Leafs who, as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported, would’ve needed salary retention to acquire any of the Flames’ rearguards.

According to one source, the Leafs were “all over” the Flames for not just Zadorov, but Chris Tanev, as well; the belief is that Calgary would’ve needed to retain money on both players to make the cash work. According to Friedman, Tanev continues to be the main target of Toronto, and there is a general belief that Toronto GM Brad Treliving believes he can get the player to sign an extension. There’s also a belief that the Leafs won’t move on any other defender until Tanev is no longer an option.

Several league executives told me Treliving has not tipped his hand as to what he’s willing to pay to acquire, which aligns with colleague Pagnotta’s recent report – not just for Tanev, but any defenceman at this juncture. Toronto doesn’t have a ton of assets to offer but are unwilling to move the few that do garner value.

Prospect forwards Easton Cowen and Frazer Minten were described to me as “non-starters” for the Leafs. The coy approach of Toronto has left more than one team a little frustrated with trade talks.

Toronto has not only knocked on Calgary’s door for defencemen, but have kept an eye on Philadelphia Flyers blueliner Rasmus Ristolainen in recent weeks, as I first reported last Tuesday.

I’ve been told that while the Flyers and Leafs had a conversation regarding Ristolainen last Wednesday, talks have not progressed at this point. The Leafs have reservations about Ristolainen’s three-year term beyond this season and also told the Flyers they’d need retention on the AAV.

The Flyers are willing to be flexible but would prefer not to retain on Ristolainen; the team is already using up a retention spot on Kevin Hayes until 2026 and would like to keep the other two open year over year. The Flyers are also in no hurry to move out any player as they are riding a four-game win streak and sit third in the Metropolitan Division as of Tuesday morning. Ristolainen is also believed to be in the good graces of Head Coach John Tortorella, as the player provides a brand of hockey that is unique to the rest of the Flyers’ defensive core.

Moving any player off the Flyers’ roster right now is a tough decision for their management as the team has grown very close and is riding high on the ice. After years of a “splintered” locker room, as Tortorella once described, the room is now believed to be in its best place in years; messing with that could have a negative, intangible effect off the ice. The Flyers’ rebuild is as much about fixing the culture as it was about reloading on talent, one person said to me recently.

But even with intangibles in play, the Flyers are not deviating from their rebuilding plan, as General Manager Daniel Briere said on the team’s broadcast a few days ago. With that in mind, there may come a time where some tough decisions need to be asked.

As recently reported by Friedman on “Saturday Headlines,” the Flyers were asked about both defencemen Nick Seeler and Sean Walker together as the two have formed a very formidable second pair this season and have been integral in the Flyers’ success. Asking around about this, I got mixed responses on who this team could be.

One person mentioned the Leafs, as Seeler and Walker are cheaper consolation prizes to Zadorov and Tanev. Given the Leafs’ interest in both Calgary defencemen, another source said that it’d “make sense” the Leafs would have their eyes on another duo of rearguards in a package.

Looking to get more clarity on it, I reached out to someone close to the Flyers and had it immediately shot down. Furthering the trade talks between the Leafs and Flyers, this same person said that Toronto was not prepared to part with their first-round pick for any of Philadelphia’s players currently on the table.

The play of the duo has insulated the top pair of Cam York and Travis Sanheim perfectly and has properly slotted players like Ristolainen, Marc Staal and Egor Zamula. Moving one, let alone both, of Seeler and Walker would be heavily felt on the ice and would need to be a near can’t miss trade for the Flyers to pull the trigger on, especially in the midst of a four-game winning streak and winners of six of their last 10.

As I’ve reported several times, the Flyers are still weighing their options with Walker, including re-signing him. The team wants a first-round selection (or close to it) to move the 29-year-old blueliner; if the Leafs aren’t prepared to go there, then maybe it’s a discussion that never even got off the ground.

Circling back on the Flames, they were brought up as a potential landing spot for Ristolainen should they eventually move off of both Noah Hanafin and Tanev. With the Flames’ recent struggle to retain players, could the team have interest in Ristolainen on a three-year term?

Calgary is believed to be looking to be in the market for players in the 22- to 26-year-old range, so Ristolainen’s 29-year-old birth certificate may not fit their timeline. But with just two defencemen locked up beyond this season and Ristolainen’s game continuing to trend upwards, could GM Craig Conroy get ahead of the summer market and secure a part of his backend?

The Flames still hold arguably the biggest chip of them all in Hanifin, who reportedly turned down a contract from Calgary over a month ago. The former 2015 first-round pick is set to be 27 years old before the beginning of next season and is ready to cash in on the biggest deal of his career; the Devon Toews’ $50.75 million extension with the Colorado Avalanche is believed to be in the ballpark of what Hanifin is looking for.

Once Hanifin goes, it will likely open the floodgates for the rest of the defencemen reportedly set to be on the move.

Nashville Predators veteran Tyson Barrie is unhappy and hoping to have a new home before the NHL deadline.

Barrie, 32, carries an AAV of $4.5 million and is hoping to get more of a prominent role somewhere else; right shot defencemen always have a market, but an all-offensive guy like Barrie is certainly more of a unique fit.

Speaking of former Edmonton Oilers right shot defenseman, Adam Larsson’s name has also come to the surface in recent weeks.

Larsson, 31, has a $4 million AAV and is signed until 2025; his deal also includes a 10-team no-trade list. As the Seattle Kraken continue to freefall, you must wonder if moving Larsson (a non-rental) to reload some assets is on the table. The player and the contract would certainly fit what the Leafs are looking for.

Montreal Canadiens defenceman Mike Matheson is a name that has popped up here and there, as he has stepped into the No.1 role in Montreal since arriving last season.

Matheson, 29, is under contract until 2026 with an AAV of $4.874 million and can submit an eight-team no-trade list. Like Larsson, acquiring Matheson would be a commitment beyond this season, which may make it tougher for some teams to absorb.

Names like Matt Benning, Brian Dumoulin, Mario Ferraro and Ilya Lyubushkin will likely be Plan B, C and D for most teams once some of the bigger names come off the board. Then you have some younger blueliners like Adam Boqvist and Philip Broberg reportedly on the block, with one person even suggesting a potential swap of both players a few weeks back.

With so many defensive options at play on the market, all eyes are on the Flames and their pending UFAs to break the dam open. The Leafs are the team the most hot and heavy for help on the backend, so they will also play a major factor on when and how things progress. But once the ball gets rolling, it certainly appears that it will be barreling down a steep hill.