STEAKS AND STAKES

LOS ANGELES, CA — As another NHL season arrives, here’s an off-ice anecdote from the Los Angeles Kings-Edmonton Oilers playoff series last May.

I covered all but one of the games, Game 5 in Edmonton, and in my absence, I attempted to help my media friends who were looking for a place to dine in Edmonton on a Monday evening. Given the day of the week, there were not many options to explore and through my multiple visits to Edmonton over the past two years, I volunteered my “expertise” on what options were available. I’ll withhold the names to protect the innocent (and guilty) with the outcome of my recommendation of a steak house not far from the Ice District that houses the Oilers home, Rogers Place.

There’s an old saying: “No good deed goes unpunished.” That came to fruition when a text floated in from one member of the media dining party that read simply, “You’re in trouble.” So, at some point during the Kings season, a compensatory steak dinner for the offended parties will be added to the schedule.

There will be big steaks on the table at a to-be-determined joint in some NHL city soon, but the stakes will be bigger for a Kings franchise that turned the corner in its rebuild.

Los Angeles returned to the postseason for the first time since 2017 and had the Western Conference finalist Oilers on the ropes before Connor McDavid did Connor McDavid things with Edmonton on the brink of elimination to send them home for a shorter summer than the past four.

Despite not getting out of the first round and tasting the bitter defeat of a Game 7, what last season’s team accomplished with statistics that looked little like a postseason qualifier (+3 goal differential, 27th ranked powerplay, 22nd ranked penalty kill, last in shooting percentage) is to give this team confidence in their attempt to achieve the next step in the progression towards legitimate contender status – a Pacific Division title.

Reviewing predictions around the league for the upcoming Los Angeles season, the consensus is regression not progression, but given what the consensus was last season (including my own – a non-playoff qualifier), the guesses are purely for entertainment. My call will come at the end of this column after listing what should be key points to the 82-game marathon:

WHAT CAN’T HAPPEN

Regression.

Plain and simple, this team cannot go backwards. Los Angeles must make the postseason in consecutive seasons for the first time since the 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons. Repeating as a postseason team will be a more difficult task than getting there as both head coach Todd McLellan and GM Rob Blake admitted their team will not be sneaking up on the competition (Hunted vs. Hunters).

Improvement from bottom feeders like Anaheim and Seattle and quicker starts from Vegas and Vancouver will make points more difficult to grasp. If that comes to fruition, the winner will have less than 111 points Calgary registered to win the Pacific.

The presence of Kevin Fiala may not make it necessary for a reprise in career highs from Adrian Kempe and Philip Danault in goals, but they must stay within range of the 35 and 27 goals they tallied. Could the Kings be a “better” team, record 95 points and miss the playoffs? It’s possible, but that wouldn’t be progression.

WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN

More goals. Maybe more goals against, too.

Caveats always apply when projecting preseason performance to regular-season play, but the Kings will be a better offensive team than last season. Fiala stands to break Kopitar’s long standing streak of leading the team in scoring, Arthur Kaliyev should shoot, shoot and when he’s done shooting, shoot some more, and the special teams that did nothing to help win games doesn’t have to improve much to be assets.

The final games of the preseason were out of character that was established last season – high scoring, lack of shot suppression and more entertaining. McLellan admitted that some things need to be cleaned up but hinted at a malaise when facing games 5-6-7 of the preseason, but also admitted that they must find more offense if they plan to be playing games in mid-April.

WHAT COULD HAPPEN

The Kids emerge.

Remember “Play The Kids”? It’s a thing of the past. You blinked and Los Angeles became a team up at the cap (approximately $1.2 million from the ceiling per Cap Friendly) and with a top-six forward wall ranging in age from 26 to 35. But for the forwards still classified as “juveniles” – specifically Quinton Byfield, Kaliyev and Gabriel Vilardi – they have the luxury of veteran presence to lessen the pressure of producing and progressing.

Byfield’s time is now. He’s got a puck retriever in Alex Iafallo and the aforementioned shooter in Kaliyev to start the season. Vilardi appears to be a different player on this Opening Night; his net-front presence led to preseason goal scoring and while he hasn’t locked in a position, he could wind up being the focal point of the second powerplay unit as the season progresses.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN

Prediction time!

I don’t agree with the predictions of regression for the Kings. They fashioned a 99-point season despite a 1-5-1 start and an injury-plagued defense that pressed into service players who weren’t in the plan a year ago. Had Viktor Arvidsson been healthy for the postseason, there may have been a second playoff round in Alberta.

Fiala is clearly a difference maker, an additional play maker the offense sorely needs but there I have concern about the goaltending tandem – can Jonathan Quick, who turns 37 in January, summon up one more season of solid, if not spectacular netminding. His level of play could have a greater impact if Cal Petersen can’t shake off the subpar play hat has extended from last season’s end and into this preseason.

My call will be a progression of “one” – Los Angeles will finish with 100 points (one more than its 99-point finish and win one round (the first series win since the 2014 Cup win) in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They can win the Pacific Division as a dark horse (+500 per betonline.ag) but not a legitimate threat to the Colorado Avalanche’s defense of their crown.

A successful season is one that establishes a foundation for legitimate contention for the 2023-24 season and beyond.

ETC. AND SO ON…

As the season opens, we’ve returned on various platforms. Our radio plate is full again – The Hot Stove powered by The Fourth Period has commenced at its usual 11AM-1PM ET Saturday spot on Sirius XM NHL Network Radio and I’ll be called upon as a regular co-host on The Power Play with Steve Kouleas from 3-6PM East. My friends Sean Campbell and Mitch Gallo on TSN Radio 690 Montreal have installed me on Fridays at 11AM as part of their “Hockey Heaven at 11.” You’ll also hear and see me nationally with Scott Ferrall on Sports Grid, with Mitch Moss and Paulie Howard on VSiN, as well as various appearances on radio outlets around North America.

The fourth season of Kings Of The Podcast has commenced with my co-host The Mayor John Hoven with Rob Blake as this week’s guest and look for me as a regular contributor on The Raw Knuckles Podcast with my pal Chris “Knuckles” Nilan.

But wait there’s more – David Pagnotta and me will be debuting a weekly betting show on Wednesday, look for that announcement shortly.

Other than that, there’s not much going on.

See you at the games.