LAK SUMMER: IT’S WINNING TIME

LOS ANGELES, CA — After two months of inactivity following their first-round elimination in the Stanley Cup Playoffs by the Edmonton Oilers, the Los Angeles Kings took significant steps to establish themselves as a championship contender for the upcoming 2023-24 National Hockey League season.

Excess assets were moved, a contract that added to the notion that there are no untradeable contracts in the NHL was disposed of, and a star player they had pursued for three years was secured. The result produced a team with one clear cut strength – the center position – but with question marks in other areas.

The organizational depth at right defense has been pared down over past two seasons – prospects Brock Faber and Helge Grans were leveraged for an impact player (Kevin Fiala) and cap space to sign player on the verge of unrestricted free agency (Vladislav Gavrikov), two established players – Sean Durzi and Sean Walker – departed to clear the path for youngsters Brandt Clarke and Jordan Spence.

But the main event, the trade to acquire Pierre-Luc Dubois, came last week during the NHL Awards and Draft celebrations in Nashville.

Opinions vary on the effectiveness of General Manager Rob Blake’s management since taking over the from Dean Lombardi, but what can’t be disputed is that he’s become comfortable taking big swings in his attempt to bring a third Cup to Los Angeles.

It started with Phil Danault, signing him to deal which many thought was an overpayment but has turned into a value deal at a $5.5 million cap hit. He raised the stakes last summer with the acquisition of Fiala, a point-a-game player who made the offensive more dynamic but the price to keep him was close to $8 million per year.

Buying a free agent is one thing, trading futures for an impact player is another, but when you trade three roster players and a high second-round pick for a talented power forward making his third stop in seven NHL seasons, that’s the definition of being “all-in.”

Despite the Kings improving for the third straight season in regular-season standings points, the playoff failure against the Oilers is a call to action. Simply making the post-season isn’t good enough and with the prospect of meeting the defending champions Vegas Golden Knights or the Oilers for a third straight time next Spring, Blake’s big swing has closed the gap down the middle between his team and the best in the Pacific.

I’ve advocated for two seasons the importation of proven NHL talent was essential to get Los Angeles back to contender status. Even the best teams at drafting and development don’t win championships on that alone. The Tampa Bay Lightning find a way every season, the Avalanche had to add Nazem Kadri to win it all and four of the Vegas Golden Knights top six forwards were acquired by trade (Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel, Chandler Stephenson and Mark Stone).

Blake executed one of the tenets of a sports trade – acquiring the best player. Pierre-Luc Dubois is an established scorer – a four-time 20 goal scorer and coming off a career best 27 goal, 36 assist season in Winnipeg. He brings size (6’3’ 220 lbs.) the roster lacks and adding him and subtracting Rasmus Kupari to the center alignment will create significant matchup problems. A perfect player? No. His biggest area of opportunity is consistency and his performance in the Jets first-round elimination to Vegas is proof. Dubois was dominant – a goal and assist, +3 rating and 8-for-13 in the faceoff dot – in the Jets lone 5-1 victory in Game 1. From there, he was a non-factor in the four straight losses Winnipeg incurred.

As for what the Kings surrendered, there is risk automatically attached to any 4-for-1 trade for the team that gets the 1, but my view says it’s manageable risk. Kupari may carve out a fine NHL career but short of significant improvement offensively it will be as a bottom-six center. Some see similarity to another first round pick from Europe selected as a center – Adrian Kempe – but after watching Kupari, I don’t see the same tools that Kempe eventually unlocked.

Alex Iafallo is a team-first player who will improve the Jets locker room from the minute he walks in. Originally an undrafted free agent, he’s easy to coach, can play both wing positions and scored a game-winner overtime goal in Game 1 in Edmonton. But with the commitment to playing Quinton Byfield on the left side, the proven chemistry between Trevor Moore and Danault and Fiala’s presence, as solid as Iafallo is he stood to be on the fourth line. He’s never scored 20 goals in a season and at a $4 million cap hit that space was needed to get to place where Dubois could be offered his $68 million, max term deal.

The player that has some fans in a snit about his departure is Gabriel Vilardi.

Vilardi shrugged off a tough injury history and being miscast as a center to turn in a season the team has been waiting for since they “stole” him with the 11th overall pick in 2017. He registered 23 goals, added two more in the postseason and his board play couple with the ability to make plays in tight spaces was impactful in the Kings improving offense. Is it a fair debate as to which player – Dubois or Vilardi – will ultimately be the “best player” in the deal? On talent, possibly, but given Dubois has a six-season body of work and Vilardi has yet to play a full 82-game season, Vilardi must work to close the gap.

What I find more intriguing is conversation about the personality and character of Dubois, who portrayed as a malcontent – pointing to the memorable playoff spat in Columbus with then-coach John Tortorella that led to his trade for Patrik Laine and his unwillingness to sign long-term in Winnipeg, a circumstance similar to Matthew Tkachuk’s departure from Calgary.

The level of concern for a third trade request is much smaller. Dubois has a full no-movement clause in Years 2-5 of his deal, the commitment to the max term deal and stating his arrival in Los Angeles “a dream come true” lessens it further. Given Vilardi’s answer to my direct question at April’s exit interview about his willingness to sign long-term in Los Angeles (“I don’t know – it’s up to my agent”), my take is that Vilardi would have left Los Angeles sooner than Dubois.

The expectation of Dubois and Fiala forming a partnership should give Arthur Kaliyev an opportunity to emerge. Though scoring 13 goals in 56 games with primarily fourth line duty is no small feat, Kaliyev has to be more than a one-dimensional player, an assessment brought into focus by being scratched in four of six playoff games. The alignment also gives cover to Byfield, who can’t score three goals again, but a mid-to-high teen goal production would look solid added to the 30-goal plateau Dubois should hit.

The fourth line will be anchored by Blake Lizotte and with the Kings to be up against the cap all season, kids like Sammy Fagemo and Alex Turcotte have their best chance to stick on the Opening Night roster.

The return of a friendly face Trevor Lewis should help the penalty kill with the assumption he takes Kupari’s role. Trevor stopped by “The Hot Stove” with us on SiriusXM NHL Network Radio on Saturday to chat about his return to his first NHL home.

With the forward wall set and clearly the team’s strength – the defense and goaltending will determine the success of the 2023-24 season.

Job 1 for Blake was to get Gavrikov back and he had to participate in a three-way trade to pave the path financially and to have Los Angeles’ top four defense (Gavrikov, Matt Roy, Drew Doughty, and Mikey Anderson) settled going into the season is a plus. In a copycat league, the Kings look to replicate Vegas’ strength down the middle, but they aren’t close to them when you compare the defenses, specifically when it comes to size and physicality. Though they added a veteran in Andreas Englund, a bigger defenseman or one with a more physical game (Radko Gudas – a curious overpayment by the non-contending Ducks) is still lacking. Despite lacking those dimensions and only having the Gavrikov upgrade for 20 games, Los Angeles was top-10 in expected goals percentage and Corsi in the regular-season.

But if they intend to move from their middle-of-the-pack 16th ranked goal-against standing, they must elevate from the 27th best save percentage posted last season. When you have two players making over $10 million per season, another just signed for $8.5 million and a fourth making close to $8 million, they’re not much space left to upgrade the net – not much defined as $1-1.5 million.

While some Kings fans had visions of Connor Hellebuyck or Juuse Saros skating into the net for Opening Night against Colorado, it will (and likely always going to be) be either Pheonix Copley or the import Cam Talbot.

Talbot was a Toddfather workhorse in Edmonton, but the Kings will be his fifth stop since his Oilers days and confirmed to me during Monday’s conference call that there was an interest to return to his last team, the Ottawa Senators but both term (1 year vs 2 years) and AAV were barriers. Will the Copley-Talbot tandem be a barrier to a successful season – defined now as a deep playoff run? Depends on your view of the impact of goaltending on contending teams.

Conn Smythe Award candidate Adin Hill didn’t play a playoff game until the second round of the playoffs. Alex Lyon, not Sergei Bobrovsky was the Panthers starter in Game 1 against Boston. The three Vezina finalists – Linus Ullmark (the winner), Ilya Sorokin, Hellebuyck – and the previous Vezina winner Igor Shesterkin combined for zero (0) playoff round wins. There’s a case for not needing a great goaltender to win in the postseason but getting great goaltending is.

Joonas Korpisalo did not give Los Angeles great goaltending in the postseason and his $4 million per season, five-year deal as Ottawa’s starter next season (that goalie carousel keeps on spinning) is something out of the Kings price range and would have been an overpayment given his postseason performance.

The other dimension the Kings’ lack is toughness/physicality/grit/whatever you want to call it. Is it a facet that is essential to win a championship? If you believe it is, it’s necessary at Game 83 and beyond, more so than for the regular-season. Vegas showed that you can augment that dimension at the trade deadline by acquiring and keeping Ivan Barbashev. Given the cap crunch, if Los Angeles wants to add a physical presence the earliest opportunity looks to be around Game 40 and beyond of next season.

So, what about next season? Will it be one in which Los Angeles progresses from a playoff qualifier to Stanley Cup contender? I thought this team had a legitimate shot emerge from the West this season – the late season injury to Fiala derailed an opportunity to win the first Pacific Division title in franchise history and their soul-crushing Game 4 loss at home was the beginning of the end of a 104-point season.

But with the forecasted strength of its offense, coupled with emerging contributions from Byfield and Kaliyev, a potential X-factor in Clarke and just good enough goaltending, Los Angeles should be poised to be in the race for the Pacific Division.

As for the post season, a third consecutive one-and-out will be considered a regression, they need to win a playoff round for the first time since Alec Martinez waved his Jazz Hands.  

It’s Winning Time in LA.