LAK FORECAST: 72 AND MOSTLY SUNNY

“This is the playoffs for the LA Kings.” – Los Angeles Kings Coach Todd McLellan

LOS ANGELES, CA — Since mid-season, as the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs started to become an attainable goal for his Los Angeles Kings. I regularly asked Coach Todd McLellan if he was projecting what his team needed to achieve record-wise to land the franchise’s first playoff spot in four seasons. His answers were steadfast, refusing to cite point totals or number of wins it would take to get to the top eight in the Western Conference. He alternated references between the next game and the inability to forecast how the opposing teams would play, citing the only destiny they could control was their own.

But with a crucial Game 72 against the Edmonton Oilers, one of the teams vying with them for the right to play a Game 83, I must have blinked and missed the notification that the post-season had arrived.

At Wednesday’s media availability, the Toddfather advised me that the playoffs are already here. They have arrived not in the sense of raised tickets prices or parking fees, but with the stakes each of the remaining 10 games carry.

In a breakthrough season that sees Los Angeles on the cusp of post-season play, there is still work to do; wins they must have to attain a goal that was far off in the distance at season’s start.

The fact that the Kings are thisclose to the playoffs (my guess at Game 1 was improvement but still one season away from a postseason return) given the crooked path they’ve taken to their 86-point total is an impressive feat. Covering this team throughout, the injured reserve list has been the most-visited reference page, far more than the scoring leaders list or advanced stats website. At one point, a player of significance was added daily to the missing and for a stretch the question was, “who’s playing” and not "who’s out?”

Though trying to stay in the moment, McLellan admitted it’s been a marathon for him through the lack of continuity in the lineup. But through the disruption he has created something more valuable than pure wins or losses. For a team that lacks size, an overabundance of skill and NHL experience throughout the roster, when they play to their strength, they’ve managed to carve out the identity of a competitive team that doesn’t surrender much to the opposition (eighth in goals against per game).

It's a system that rewards hard work, a must for a team that cannot yet impose pure offensive will and skill to win games. Yes, there have been multiple offensive career years for veterans (Adrian Kempe and Phil Danault with goals, Trevor Moore shattering his season point total) but the buy-in to a checking identity from both established players with Stanley Cup rings and players making their NHL debuts is why the final 10 regular season games are important for the first time in years.

The belief system that surrounds this team isn’t limited to the men who strap on the skates every night. Even in the tough moments, particularly in the season’s infancy when they lost two-thirds of their right defense to injury, McLellan has held on to an air of confidence that this would be the season where you measure improvement not by something nebulous as “development or growth” but in standings points. Navigating through the fog of COVID-19 of the last two seasons, it easy to forget that Los Angeles played at a 72-point pace a season ago and if its form holds until the end of the month, a standings point improvement in the mid-20’s is why some are offering McLellan as a Jack Adams Trophy (Coach of the Year) candidate.

PLUG AND PLAY

Despite possessing a matter-of-fact attitude to the team’s progression, I asked him this week if any aspect of its success was a surprising to him.

“There’s always surprises. I think there’s disappointments,” he said. “I think the ability to plug and play (different players into the lineup and continuing to win) – I wouldn’t call it a surprise; I think there was some apprehension when (the injury adversity) arrived. We weren’t sure what was going to happen, but I’ve said it before it’s a reflection on the organization doing things together – from scouting to management to development to trainers to players, everyone seems to be on the same page, and it’s helped.”

Leading up to the final 10, the experience obtained by a bushel full of kids will prove to be invaluable, from the emerging feature role by Sean Durzi to the first NHL goal by Jordan Spence and the resurfacing of Gabe Vilardi. As the absent veterans get healthy, the youngster’s roles may be reduced or disappear entirely, but given that the second season has already arrived, according to their coach, if they are playing, they need to be productive.

If the Vilardi-Quinton Byfield-Rasmus Kupari trio will still be a thing (and I’m not sure it will), it can’t be a second “energy” line. There’s too much talent in the NHL to have a top-six and bottom-six, it’s been skewed to a top-9 and an energy line and for the balance of the season and going forward, production from the 7-8-9 players in the lineup (whether kids or vets) has to be there.

As for the final page of this season that is yet to be written, the 10 games that will determine whether playoff hockey will be played in downtown Los Angeles, it stands to be a thriller. The Oilers and the Vegas Golden Knights recent play (but that ugly 5-1 loss to Vancouver Wednesday was significant) has tightened up the race for the easiest path to the post-season, the two divisional seeds behind the presumptive division winner, the Calgary Flames. Given the games-in-hand the two current Western wildcards have on Los Angeles, the playoffs path is only through a divisional berth. The good news: The Edmonton game marks the final match against the Pacific’s top three (Oilers, Golden Knights and Flames) and the strength of schedule is one of the weakest in the NHL.

The not-so-good news? They’ve lost to every team on the remaining schedule at some point this season except for the Columbus Blue Jackets. The road to growth has been littered with losses to Seattle, Chicago (recent home losses) and Anaheim, all teams standing in their path.

One of the most intriguing parts of the season is the shift in expectations from October until April. The ask coming into the season was to have Game 72 be a game of consequence, now Game 72 is a rather large one. To be a buyer (albeit a small one and did not address the need for scoring that exists) at the trade deadline sure beats selling off players again, but with the progression made and with the postseason well within reach, would missing the playoffs make the season a failure?

But if they play to form and Vegas, the team presently on the outside looking in, doesn’t close with a rush – somewhere along the lines of winning 8 out of 10 – could a fully healthy Kings squad have success in May? Their play against both Edmonton and Calgary (the assumptive second round opponent) this season says they have a legitimate shot.

Entering tonight’s game, the Kings are 1-1-1 vs. the Oilers and 1-2-0 against the Flames (but all Darryl Sutter 3-2 specials). The would-be underdogs in both series, but the results say they won’t be overmatched.

Game 83 awaits.