LAK AT THE BREAK: THE NEXT BIG SWING

LOS ANGELES, CA — Remember when the NHL All Star break marked the season’s halfway point? Those days are long gone as the Los Angeles Kings hit ASG weekend and their bye week with just 29 games remaining in the regular-season. Along with the Washington Capitals, no team has played as many as the 53-game ride that’s taken entertaining twists and turns.

There’s been the unexpected, both good and bad – a dangerous powerplay, presently ranked in the top 10, a bottom ten goals against standing, validation of the biggest trade in General Manager’s Rob Blake regime, and the emergence of a goaltender, Pheonix Copley, who started the season as an afterthought and whose importance to a playoff run grows by the day.

After last Tuesday’s game with Carolina, the 29-game sprint to the finish line could be both a race to win the franchise’s first-ever Pacific Division title, as well as a struggle to stay in the top eight in the Western Conference. If they earn a Stanley Cup Playoffs qualification, it will be the first time since 2014 that Los Angeles made back-to-back post season appearances and the first time since Blake took the reins.

Early on, it was apparent this season’s version of the Kings bore little resemblance to the one that was eliminated in the first-round by Edmonton in seven games last spring.

The expectation that accompanied Kevin Fiala after a trade with Minnesota has been realized – he’s galvanized the offense, making the players around him more productive and rightfully earned his first All Star nomination. He’s added excitement to what was a dreary and unimaginative offense and while not the perfect player – his decision making at times hurts the team and his freelancing can make him a challenging linemate – was a mandatory add to the roster.

But the rise of the entertainment value of their games hasn’t been solely in the offensive zone and the team’s shortcomings in their own zone is something that Head Coach Todd McLellan has been challenged to eliminate all season. The consistency of the defensive effort is not at the level to eliminate doubt that they will play a Game 83 in April. There have been singular efforts – specifically the win in Las Vegas against the Golden Knights on January 7 – that show they are capable of a 60-minute shutdown effort.

But on most nights, the games are tightly contested as evidenced by the fact that 25 of the 53 games played have been one-goal affairs. Los Angeles is the only team of the current 16 playoff qualifiers to possess a negative goal differential (-10 with Pittsburgh’s +8 the next lowest) but they are accustomed to playing close contests as last season’s differential landed at +3. Of the 25 one-goal games, the Kings have only lost three in regulation (16-3-6) so if they stay close this squad has proven they’re good enough to walk away with points on most nights.

So, while the characteristics of this year’s model is very different, short of a big run or major collapse in the final 29, they stand to end at the same place (99 points last season, on pace for 98 this season) from a point standing perspective. The difference with this 82 game run is there is no dominant team – no 111 point Calgary Flames of last season – that preclude the possibility of a Pacific Division title with a strong finish.

Once Los Angeles gets to full health they appear to be set along the forward wall. Assuming Trevor Moore will be reinstalled in his usual spot with Philip Danault and Viktor Arvidsson, the Kings will have the luxury of having Gabriel Vilardi and Arthur Kaliyev on the bottom-six.

Quinton Byfield is an X-factor; does he stay in his current left wing role alongside Anze Kopitar or does he shift back to his natural center position – a slot he may not be ready for and with Blake Lizotte performing well as a 3C. Regardless how the forward alignment lands, offense should not be an issue.

As far as the other end of the ice... there is plenty of room for improvement, the debate is where to reinforce? The statistics scream goaltending is the issue, the team’s goals against ranks 23rd and that’s despite being among the league’s best in yielding shots, quality chances and shots from the slot. Copley, who saved the season when Jonathan Quick and Cal Petersen underachieved, is ranked 51st in save percentage, slot save percentage and inner slot save percentage, but no one expected a performance to rival Igor Shesterskin when he was recalled on December 1.

Copley had a rough two game stretch against Dallas and Nashville (which included one of the all-time quickest pulls of a non-injured goalie 39 seconds into the game) but righted the ship to go 3-0-1 on the balance of the trip and would have been undefeated if not for the Carolina collapse (which he contributed to as well.)

The chatter continues as to what, if anything, Blake will do in net over the next month with veteran and pending UFA netminder Cam Talbot of the Ottawa Senators one of the names that has surfaced to upgrade the position. But is the addition of a fourth healthy goaltender really feasible? While Copley won’t earn any Vezina votes with a sub-.900 save percentage and 2.92 goals-against-average, he continues to win games. If he would be the designated goalie to lose his roster spot (yes, the Kings could carry three goalies but given the injury situation among forwards I doubt it), there’s little doubt that a goalie who has fashioned a 15-3-1 record wouldn’t be claimed on the waiver wire.

As the days wind down on the walk year of his 10-year deal and with his stated preference to continue playing next season, it’s a big stretch to think that Jonathan Quick – who has lost a level of trust by McLellan by not winning a game since December 1 and not beating a team with a current winning record since November 8 – would be waived in the final weeks of his legendary Kings career. Perhaps Petersen is the late season answer as a number two with the numbers he’s put up for the AHL Ontario Reign but like Quick it’s an issue of trust as to if his improved performance will translate to improvement at the NHL level.

Yes, the goaltending metrics are significantly inferior to the defensive ones (verified by our statistical partners at Sportlogiq), but with only one goalie signed after this season – Petersen – and with the team still not a championship contender, the reimaging of the net should be an off-season project. Not so for the blueline and if you truly don’t trust the netminding to get you to the playoffs for a second consecutive season bulking up the defense can inject more confidence in your own zone.

The theme hasn’t changed since last off-season – the depth chart on the left side has returned mixed results behind Mikey Anderson. Sean Walker was first up but the ask was too big coming off a major knee injury/surgery and was quickly moved to a better fitting third pair, right side role. Next up was Sean Durzi, whose offense is needed and gives full effort every game, but the jury is out as to if he is the next Alec Martinez (a right hard shot who successfully transitioned to the left side). Alexander Edler’s season can told in the comparison between his time-on-ice for this season vs. last – 18:28 v 15:12 – a massive drop and again, the proper decision. Two possible internal solutions, left shots Tobias Bjornfot and Jacob Moverare, have not emerged, so the need that existed in July still exists.

The trade target chatter has been consistent as to which players could provide a solution – Vladislav Gavrikov, a solid stay-at-home defenseman available as a rental from Columbus, and more permanent solutions in Ivan Provorov from Philadelphia and a player who it seems has been connected to Los Angeles for a decade, Arizona’s Jakob Chychrun.

As we mentioned in our Trade Deadline video from All Star Weekend, those fans who have kept a lit candle in the window for the Arizona defenseman should think about extinguish the flame. Despite the Boston Bruins fashioning an incredible regular-season, we’ve heard they are significantly down the path towards a Chychrun trade. You can’t blame General Manager Don Sweeney for thinking that a top-four defense comprised of Chychrun, Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm and Brandon Carlo (or Connor Clifton) would enhance the chances of bringing the Cup back to the Hub for the first time since 2011.

With the understanding that things can change with one phone call, in the moment it appears Boston has a higher level of interest and a greater sense of urgency on Chychrun. It’s an understandable position given that centers Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci are respectively 37 and 36 years old and unrestricted free agents at season’s end.

At minimum, Chychrun should be moved down if not off the Los Angeles trade target list.

It was interesting to see one of the Kings’ competitors for the division title, the Seattle Kraken make a move for San Jose’s Jaycob Megna over the break. Megna performed solidly for a poor Sharks team, playing 19 minutes a night, and at 6’6” would have given size to the LA blueline that is lacking. The cost was just a conditional fourth-round pick and with a cap hit of just $762,500 for this season and next, it’s one of those moves that other contenders will be looking to make leading up to the deadline.

What does it all mean? With less than 30 games remaining in the chase for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, it appears that Blake will lean into his strongest trait as a General Manager – patience.

Short of significant injury along the blueline and with too many forwards once at full strength, the prospect of taking a comparable big swing for the defense like he did for the offense with Kevin Fiala doesn’t appear to be likely by March 3.

Does it come in the summer? Maybe.

Or maybe it’s time to start saving dollars and cap space for the summer of 2024 when Auston Matthews is scheduled to be a free agent.