LAK AT 56: HILLER AT THE HELM

LOS ANGELES, CA — If Los Angeles Kings interim coach Jim Hiller were an MLB pitcher, there’s no question what the top pitch in his arsenal would be – the change-up.

Handed a team in the throes of the poorest stretch of hockey produced since he arrived at the start of last season as an assistant to now-deposed coach Todd McLellan, Hiller chose to shake things up to reverse the team’s fortune.

All coaches tweak their lineup when results aren’t happening but it’s usually the move of one forward line or one defensive pairing. But not this coach, he keeps throwing change-up after change-up (you would have got a big payoff if you bet in October that Blake Lizotte-PL Dubois-Quinton Byfield would be a thing) and the diet of change has been a short-term remedy.

With a roster that has little flexibility given the off-season roster strategy of General Manager Rob Blake, Hiller did the one thing McLellan resisted, injecting change in his skidding squad. It’s not just players that need to have a sense of desperation to win games and it appears that rings true behind the Kings bench under Hiller.

He is coaching as if the next game is his last, like his team is on the verge of elimination though they should safely make the playoffs. No forward combination is safe, no defensive pairing is set in stone, more with the rash of injuries (at present Carl Grundstrom, Viktor Arvidsson and Mikey Anderson are among the missing). Whether it’s the cliched “new voice” or the players having new playmates, the Kings have started to win games again.  Hiller says the team’s mindset and confidence still haven’t returned to level it was when they were breaking NHL records and being classified as a dangerous Stanley Cup contender, the lessening of mistakes in crunch time and finding ways to win signal a cleansing of their collective hockey souls.

With their 3-2 shootout victory over the Anaheim Ducks, Los Angeles is 6-2 with Hiller at the helm which includes multiple trend reversals, specifically a 3-1 home record, an overtime and shootout win. Though the Kings will not win strength of schedule points on the short-term home success (Columbus and Anaheim were two of the three wins) it’s essential for a playoff-worthy team to stack home wins, though not getting to the Pacific Division’s second seed is probably a good thing given the disparity in home and away records.

Despite the attention drawn to all the changes along the forward wall, nothing has changed offensively. In the last eight games of McLellan’s tenure, Los Angeles scored 20 goals, the first eight matches of the Hiller regime have produced the same amount, and their 5-on-5 production has lessened (11 prior, nine current).

So, what is working through this run, which has put them back in contention for a top three divisional seed as well as keeping distance between themselves and the multiple wild card pursuers?

• Defense. Despite Hiller’s reputation as an offensive coach (he still runs the power play, newly installed assistant coach D.J. Smith is running the 5-on-5 play), the defense has improved markedly. Excluding the brutal 7-0 loss in Buffalo, Los Angeles has surrendered 13 goals in the other seven games.

• Penalty Kill. The one constant in a roller-coaster season. They have lost their league-leading status to the Philadelphia Flyers, but the Kings have a streak of 33 consecutive games without yielding multiple power play goals.

• Prime Time Play. Sometimes it’s more not making a losing play than making a winning one to get the W. Winger Kevin Fiala noted that while their game is far from perfect and mistakes will still come, the elimination of consecutive mistakes that led to scoring chances have been reduced. The numbers bear the Swiss Army Knife words out as Los Angeles has surrendered almost five less scoring chances per game.

• Goaltending. Connected to the improved defense, David Rittich and Cam Talbot are starting to face less shots again and as a result, their collective save percentage has moved significantly from .893 to .912 in the 16 game before-and-after sample size, well above the league average of .899. Despite the reduction in scoring chances noted above, the last eight games have shown an increase of one high danger chance against per game. The recent trend may dispel the notion that a goalie has to be acquired by the March 8 trade deadline.

Expanding the thread of the trade deadline that’s less than two weeks away, Arvidsson’s second trip to LTIR doesn’t look as if it will extend to the end of the regular season. If that is the case it impairs the possibility of an impact move as Los Angeles will need to be cap compliant upon his return.

But the way things look offensively over the past two months, adding another winger with touch around the net is needed. It would be less of a need if Adrian Kempe and Trevor Moore start finding the back of the net on a regular basis again but with the uncertain status of Arvidsson and the disappointing season delivered by Arthur Kaliyev, the top nine forwards have room for an add.

The biggest winger prize on the TFP Trade Watch List is Pittsburgh’s Jake Guentzel, whose future is uncertain with the Penguins. Guentzel is a bonafide goal scorer, a two-time 40-goal winger and will improve the offense wherever he lands but he doesn’t make sense for Los Angeles for multiple reasons. He’s a left-handed shot which isn’t going address the season-long need for a righthanded presence on the power play. The top target in the trade market will exact a hefty price and while the Kings have the assets (it would take some creativity from a cap perspective) to make the deal, you only add a player like Guentzel as the final piece of the championship puzzle. If you were adding him to the Los Angeles team that played the first 25 games, you make that move. For a team that lacks the feel of a “serious Stanley Cup contender,” you do not.

So, what other options could there be? For rentals, a low cost move like Jordan Eberle from Seattle or Tyler Johnson from Chicago (both righthanded shooters) would add some spark to the offense. But a possible intriguing option depends on the playoff fate of a team that was thought to be a Stanley Cup contender like Los Angeles in October but is on the outside looking in with 24 games remaining.

The New Jersey Devils keep thinking about trading for a goaltender, something they should have stopped thinking and done weeks ago. Their recent losses to Washington, New York Rangers and Tampa Bay have them looking like anything but a top eighth Eastern Conference team. If they don’t get right on their upcoming western road trip, could Blake convince Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald to part with LA old friend Tyler Toffoli? Multiple dominoes would have to fall but there’s no question Toffoli checks all the boxes.

THE CLOCK IS TICKING ON THE PARTY

The Arvidsson injury should open the door a final time for Kaliyev and I believe it’s a final time because with six goals in 41 games and in the final season of his entry level deal, there’s a small window to still prove he can be part of the future core of the team. But if the balance of the season does not result in more offensive impact, finding a new home is the best course of action.

There’s already been a reported trade request and when a one-way player isn’t delivering in that one way, a change of scenery is in order. The biggest (and only) weapon in his arsenal — his big shot — will attract attention and in a different system maybe the goals will come.

He could be part of a package for an established player in the offseason but a deal that makes more sense would be one where an exchange of a similar talent that hasn’t gained traction with the team they were originally drafted by – Lukas Reichel in Chicago or the Islanders’ Oliver Wahlstrom, similarly on the last year of their entry level deals would be a target if choosing this option.

RECOGNIZING AN ICON

Finally, one of the greats is stepping away from the media landscape in Los Angeles and the hockey world in general. Helene Elliott’s last day covering sports for the Los Angeles Times was on Saturday evening with a fitting tribute to her contribution to not only our game but all the major sports in our city. She was a trailblazer as one of the first women to enter an NHL locker room and is in a select club as the first female recipient of the prestigious Elmer Ferguson Award for bring “honor to journalism and hockey.”

Personally, my induction into the Professional Hockey Writers Association was through her invitation – the only way to join the member-only club and my status as an NHL Awards voter never happens without Helene. My lasting impression of this media icon isn’t a singular moment but rather the reverence paid to her by the visiting players and coaches from across when coming through Los Angeles. The game will miss her presence and I wish her well in the next chapter.