LAK AT 36: 20 AND OUT?

LOS ANGELES, CA — With three dozen games in the books the Los Angeles Kings face a critical week for their post-season hopes. Four difficult losses over the past 12 days to the rival San Jose Sharks have pushed them to seventh in the West, making this week’s games against the Arizona Coyotes and another two-game rematch against the now-mesmerizing Sharks must-win games.

The Kings are must-win not only from the perspective of the need to pass those teams, but with the knowledge that behind these games are two-game sets with the Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights.

Making the playoffs in this crazy season was a goal to start but if they do fail (and the odds increase every day that Los Angeles will), it doesn’t mean the season was a failure. The franchise has made strides and though some feel not enough forward momentum has been made, there is no question Coach Todd McLellan has built a foundation that can be leveraged next season.

It’s been a mixed bag all season in Los Angeles, so we’ll look at both sides of the coin over the past few weeks:

The good: April 20, 2021. The day fans return for NHL hockey in Los Angeles. On that night, everything is secondary to the moment the first fan walks into Staples Center. It’s been a privilege for me to attend games all season, but it’s been a bittersweet experience at best and a sad occasion most nights when I walk the empty concourse.

The not-so-good: With reduced attendance, I only wish that every fan who wanted to attend every game could do so. We’re just not at that place in Los Angeles just yet so please, if you have the ability to get vaccinated (I got my first Moderna shot on Wednesday), please do, it’s another step towards normal times.

The good: There is still runway left. For the first time since 2018 and for many players for the very first time, the final 20 games are ones of consequence. For the Core Five, there is still opportunity to lead a big run to get to the post season; for the rest, it’s a chance to see how they perform in meaningful games at the highest level of play.

The not-so-good: It’s a very tricky landing. The runway is short and getting shorter with each loss. There is little margin of error left after failing to build off the March 31 win in Vegas and lost valuable points to San Jose and Anaheim.

The good: Scrappy is their middle name. Except for the odd game against the West’s two best, the Kings are in every contest. Considering they have given up the first goal in 64 percent of games (23 of 36), their pluckiness is a good sign this team is in sync with the coaching staff and with the exception of the first game against Anaheim, effort has not been an issue.

The not-so-good: Missed it by thatmuch. Pluckiness is good but when you’ve lost 11 of 15 one-goal games, it’s a realization that talent still wins games. There are not enough reliable goal scorers on the forward wall below the top line and production from the second unit power play has become nonexistent.

The good: Let’s see Moore of Trevor. Trevor Moore may be the only saving grace of the Jack Campbell-Kyle Clifford trade. Thought to be a throw-in at the time of the deal, Moore has come home (a proud son of Thousand Oaks, CA) continues to beat the odds – he was an undrafted free agent coming out of the University of Denver – and could be the type of middle six winger (30-point player) needed.

The not-so-good: No Luff Affair. It looks like it just won’t happen for Matt Luff in L.A. Despite making noise in the 2018-19 season with 8 goals in 33 games, he’s never got traction with Toddfather despite having offensive talent and with Austin Wagner (3 goals, 6 percent shooting) as the fourth line alternative. Despite the inability to establish himself, he’s returned to the Ontario Reign determine to make other teams notice by producing.

The good: Cal Pete hard to beat. If you sort the NHL goalie statistics by either goals-against-average or save percentage, compare Cal Petersen’s record to those with the same numbers. With better run support, his win-loss record would align with his on-ice numbers (2.49 GAA, .926 save percentage). He’s the player most impacted by the team’s 21st ranked offense.

The not-so-good: King Jonathan the Second. There is still a goalie rotation in Los Angeles despite Quick not having won a game in almost a month (March 6 vs STL) and while he suffers record-wise from the same lack of offense that Petersen does, he hasn’t put up a vintage 32 performance all season. The play behind his own net to give San Jose the game winning goal on Saturday was a brutal way to lose a pivotal game.

The good: Some kids are alright. Can’t say enough good things about 21-year-old defenseman Mikey Anderson. Stepping up on Saturday in the absence of Matt Roy (unavailable due to COVID-19 protocol) to play 23 minutes in a pivotal game speaks volumes about the maturity this player has gained. Honorable mention to Jaret Anderson-Dolan whose energy and increasing aptitude in the faceoff circle creates a reliable option for Anze Kopitar.

The not-so-good: Regressing Gabe. It’s been a poor month for the Kings top prospect/youngster Gabe Vilardi. He hasn’t scored a goal in his last 15 games and the powerplay unit he centers hasn’t scored a goal in 18 games (he was the last to score on February 22 vs. STL). While growing pains are expected, the valleys he’s experienced (playing less than 10 minutes a night in multiple games, inability to drive plays) and the reasons some offer as to why – specifically his wingers (I can’t believe some people still think Martin Frk’s absence has derailed his success), the other facets to his game need to improve over the final 20 games. If they don’t, maybe there’s another option?

GIVE THE MAN THE HORSES

I’ve been vocal in my criticism of Vilardi; it’s warranted but it doesn’t mean I think he’s a failure (although the next player selected after him in 2017, Martin Necas is looking pretty, pretty good these days). There is plenty of time for him to learn from these tough times and use his abundance of talent to establish himself as a big time NHL player.

There isn’t another player in the organization that these final 20 games are more vital and not from a statistical standpoint but from an eye test perspective. He needs to look the part – a quality NHL center, creating high danger chances, being more aggressive with his shot and making the commitment to being a responsible defender in his own zone. It’s folly to ask him to be Anze Kopitar or Patrice Bergeron in less than 100 games into his career, but he needs to start showing signs he is on that track.

But what if the next 20 games are like his last 20 games? If he doesn’t move the needle playing games of importance for the first time in his pro career? Patience has been a watch word for this organization for the past two seasons but barring a big move by the team in the season’s final weeks, it’s fair to ask how much patience more should be exercised. When things return to normal next season, the stark reality is that Los Angeles trails Vegas by 16 points after 36 games and if the season was 82 games, that gap would be wider.  It is a significant mountain still to climb but on balance, it’s conceivable to get to second in the division next season if you trade off some patience for aggressiveness this summer. Doing some early handicapping for the West next season, the Edmonton Oilers appear to be the second-best team and despite the greatness of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, they are an incomplete team lacking quality depth. The re-entry of the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames and the exiting of the Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild is a significant net positive.

The combination of a weaker West, progression from the kids (they should have #playthekids eh?) and minimal regression from the core, the opportunity to return to the post-season for the 2021-22 season will be at hand. The seemingly never-ending debate about when and how the prospect pool will impact the NHL club needs clarity soon. And the greatest beneficiary of a talent upgrade isn’t the one you may think of first.

One of the few positive things coming out of the year 2020 for me was my venture into racehorse ownership through the syndicate MyRacehorse.com. You may have heard about the group which owns fractional shares of thoroughbreds and I was fortunate enough to own a small piece of the Kentucky Derby and Breeders Cup Classic winner, Authentic. The exhilaration of your horse crossing the line first in the Run for the Roses is a forever memory and my biggest takeaway from Authentic’s three-year old campaign was that no matter how great a jockey may be, he needs the horse under him to win.

McLellan will enter his third season as Los Angeles coach in the Fall and he’s excelled in a role unaccustomed to him in his professional career, the bench boss of a rebuilding team. He’s instilled a new system that limits scoring chances, has reinvigorated the team’s core players from the Stanley Cup era and has managed an incomplete roster to within striking distance of a post-season berth when many said they would fight for the first overall pick. The special teams’ play has been strong and the emergence of defenders like Matt Roy and Mikey Anderson can be chalked up to his stewardship.

While McLellan has the security of a five-year deal in his pocket, it’s time for the front office to let him ride with some new thoroughbreds next season. Whether it’s releasing the ponies from their Ontario barn or going into the horse trade to import some stallions, it’s time to give the Toddfather the horses he needs to run an 82-game race next season. He’s earned that right.

And if you’re going to do it, go buy a stakes winner. Take the large risk and try to secure the center position for a minimum of the next three seasons by taking a run at Jack Eichel this summer. Yes, it will take a lot to get him out of Buffalo (something this player needs) and my suggestion would be a 4-for-1 deal – Alex Turcotte, Quinton Byfield, a 1st and 2nd round pick – as Vilardi starts looking more like a right wing than an NHL second line center and neither Turcotte nor Byfield are close to being the point per games producer Eichel has been since his second NHL season. Unless you believe that both Turcotte and Byfield will eclipse Eichel, a very big long-shot at my track, it’s a thoroughbred purchase I would make.

That said, it’s not a no-brainer. The price tag is hefty from both an asset and cap space perspective, a valid point regardless of the abundance of space they have. Next season would be a little tougher to manage but beyond that, the expiration of Dustin Brown and Jeff Carter’s deal at the end of the  2021-22 season will cover Eichel’s cap hit in full. Despite the talk of the prospect pool, there’s no kid tracking numbers that warrant a big second bridge contract along the lines of Mat Barzal or Patrik Laine. If one does emerge, my guess is that the organization would be happy to write that check.

As for Eichel’s inability to carry his team to the post-season during his time in Buffalo, given the state of Sabres franchise, it’s hard to heap all the blame on him but it is a fair criticism. If the L.A. front office Is able to pull off this blockbuster, it would be important to keep the Los Angeles Core Five intact and give him a full season to operate in their presence and learn lessons he’s never learned in Western New York in addition to getting a major upgrade in coaching. And from an organizational perspective, it takes significant pressure off the remaining prospects to produce next season and gives them a – and this is the key word – PROVEN 1-2 punch at center that would rival anyone in the West.

See you at the finish line.