LAK AT 23: YOU NEVER KNOW

LOS ANGELES, CA — At a recent Los Angeles Kings morning skate, I asked Todd McLellan which team we expected to see in their game against the New York Rangers – the one that plays 6-5 games or the one that plays 2-1 games. McLellan’s response was a throwback to a commonly used refrain from a couple of administration ago, “If we play it right it should be 3-2.”

Given the hills and valleys of Los Angeles’ 2022-23 season, and in a league where scoring continues to be on the rise, a 3-2 score is the least likely outcome one should expect. Given the randomness of their performances – if prior to the last roadtrip, you were asked which opponent’s game would end 6-5 and which would have a 3-1 final, you have said Edmonton and Calgary respectively… and been wrong – the pursuit of determining what is the identity of this team should be put on hold until 2023.

Two of the facets of McLellan’s identity vision coming into the season – being tough to play against and not surrendering much on defense – still needs to be worked on and it depends how one defines ‘tough to play against.’ Los Angeles’ puck possession game while still solid, is slightly down from last season and lacking a big-time enforcer, it’s no surprise they’ve taken only two major penalties this season (courtesy of two Brendan Lemieux scraps).

Some see the lack of size and physicality as a significant roadblock in establishing the Kings as serious contender; I see it as a matter of degrees. If you believe that opponents routinely take liberties given there’s a lack of size on the blueline and no Ryan Reeves or Nic Deslauriers to answer the bell when warranted, it’s a fair but not new criticism. For those like myself, I believe that facet comes more to light in the postseason than the first 82 games. Playing different opponents every night and many with the same “profile” (in a swerve away from “identity”) lessens the impact of the size and physicality.

With the noticeable improvement on offense, but no longer in the top ten in goals per game, being in the middle of the pack is significant – the biggest challenge is how to get the goals-against-average down.

The standard response around the team when asked about the uneven defensive performance is “we all need to be better, the forwards, the defense and the goaltending,” but some advance statistics tell a different story. Like last season, Los Angeles is in the top-10 is yielding shots on net, slot shots and inner slot shots (the most dangerous), as well as rebound and quality chances (throughout the season, statistics referenced are from Sportlogiq). Those numbers suggest that the system established is working, the execution is not, and it’s validated by poor game and puck management in the majority of their 11 losses.

One negative trend that continues last season is the poor penalty killing – they were just outside the bottom-10 PK rate last season (76.7%) and presently are solidly inside the top-10 with a lower 75.3%. That percentage is more impactful because while Los Angeles has an aversion to taking major penalties, they sure to love to take minors (only two teams, Dallas and Edmonton have been shorthanded more). The term “game management” has dotted the conversation after losses throughout the first six weeks, which can be improved by better decision making, not just managing the puck but when to take good penalties (those that prevent scoring chances) when defending.

But even with improvement in game management, taking minors and increasing shot suppression towards last season’s numbers, the last line of defense – goaltending – is the one area where there must be improvement (either emergence from Jonathan Quick or Cal Petersen or a combined move to the league’s .900 save percentage average).

Going into the New York game, Los Angeles ranked dead last in goals saved above expected (-0.74), next to last in save percentage (.887) and in the bottom third in slot save, inner slot save percentage and quality starts. Referring to the proficiency in limiting the high danger chances, the primary reason for the Kings hovering around .500 (12-9-2) has been the tandem between the pipes. It’s unreasonable to ask either goaltender to rival Igor Shesterkin, Andrei Vasilevskiy or Connor Hellebuyck for the final 60 games, it’s not to ask them to elevate from being ranked in the bottom-10 in expected goals above expected.

Petersen put in another uneven performance against New York making some big saves, particularly on one shift where he and Viktor Arvidsson lost their sticks to essentially give the Rangers a 5-on-3 advantage but also surrendered two goals that were stoppable – a popup goal by Vincent Trocheck that fluttered by him to tie the game at 2 and Chris Krieder’s game winner less than 50 seconds after Los Angeles battled back to tie it at 3.

I asked McLellan about the game winner surrendered and he didn’t hesitate to say Cal needed to stop the short side shot from the top of the faceoff circle, though he was quick to say he hasn’t lost confidence in the goaltender who despite his winning record (5-3-1) has only posted one quality start, no shutouts and hasn’t stolen a game in his nine appearances. Quick has posted more quality starts (6), recorded a shutout and stole a couple of games, but with a 7-6-1 record he also needs to make more saves in big spots to improve his won-loss record.

COOL HAND GABE

It was great to see Gabriel Vilardi’s start after all the challenges in the early days of his NHL career. Playing right wing, a position that set him up for success far more than playing the middle, Vilardi’s early season success mirrored what Adrian Kempe has enjoyed once being freed of the responsibility of an NHL center. Thought to be an extra forward at season’s start, he answered the bell with 10 goals in his first 15 games, early on with Byfield as his pivot and then continuing the spurt with a deserved promotion to the Kopitar line in favor of an out-of-sync Kevin Fiala. It’s initially worked well; Fiala found his stride working on the third line with less talented players. Although Vilardi’s opening pace was not sustainable (55 goals over 82 games), he possesses the tools to be a 25-30 goal scorer along the lines of former King Tyler Toffoli.

Going into the Rangers game, Vilardi went through a six-game scoreless streak, though McLellan says his overall play has not diminished and the recent move off the Kopitar line was a coaching move to get more from his forward group, not a demotion. But the numbers were stark over a half dozen games, zero points playing anywhere from 15 to 20 minutes a night. One statistic states the obvious – his shot production has lowered (only two multiple shot games out of six) but further insights expand on why the shots haven’t been hitting the back of the net.

Setting aside the increase in expectations with his red-hot start Vilardi’s powerplay time had dropped significantly (3:30 to 2:10 per game) even with an increase in time-on-ice over the past seven games. Adding to the mix is a reduction of shots on net, which may be an indicator of defenses are scheming more to defend him given his early production, so it’s incumbent upon him to get to the tough areas, where he operates well to break back into the scoring column.

Seemingly taking a cue from those analytics, Vilardi went to the net on the first Kings powerplay of the night against New York and was rewarded off a great goalmouth pass by Fiala (despite his flaws, Fiala is the team’s most dynamic player) to get back in the goal scoring column. He wasn’t a factor in the San Jose win, not a surprise given his time-on-ice dipped to a season-low 12:16.  It may be time to manage expectations on his goal production (11 goals vs. expected goals of 6.34), but given he ranks either first or second in slot shots, inner slot shots and cycle changes makes him a weapon that the opposition defense must account for regardless of his line partners.

THE ROAD AHEAD

There are no must-win games in late November, but when you face a team that has won two home games in 13 attempts, it was more a case of a game you can’t lose and despite sweating out a dicey third period, Los Angeles captured two points in a rink they rarely play well in.

No team has played more games than the Kings and the grinding schedule they’ve faced over the season’s first six weeks will slow as they open a four-game home stand against Ottawa. The opposition following the Senators is not formidable with Arizona, Seattle (yes, they need to find a way to beat the Kraken) and Carolina that provides an opportunity to break out of the win-one, lose-one cadence they are stuck in over the past couple of weeks.