November 12,
2007
Stepping Back
By Darryl Dobbs, TheFourthPeriod.com
Nothing exemplifies the stock-marketesque
up-and-down value of fantasy players more than missing 10 days
of hockey almost completely and then throwing yourself back
into it full throttle. Despite such a small window, players
can bounce from rock bottom in value back to the top – and
vice versa.
After missing nearly all things hockey while on vacation, I am
finally able to delve back in. I notice some people who were
diving off of certain sinking ships are now scrambling to get
back on, while some flashes in the pan are suddenly not
looking quite so inviting.
Here are some of the bigger changes in value, both good and
bad, from October 31 to today:
Peter Mueller – Even I was starting to feel my trigger
finger get itchy on this guy and I began to wonder if I put
too many eggs in one basket with him. I have him in two keeper
leagues, as well as one of my one-year pools. When I left he
had two points in nine games, plus a healthy scratch, while
his teammate Martin Hanzal was stealing all the accolades.
Suddenly, in the eyes of many fantasy owners, Hanzal's value
had actually surpassed that of Mueller. Things have certainly
turned around since then, as Mueller has six points in his
last three games and is now seeing time on the top line with
Shane Doan and Steve Reinprecht.
Marian Hossa – I missed a chance to land him cheap just
before I left by not bending far enough in trade talks in my
keeper league. Hopefully, you didn't do the same. What does a
player need to do to prove that he is money in the bank? With
three points in nine games before I left, I could have landed
him for little more than Anze Kopitar. I balked, thinking he
would cave and take less. Since then Hossa has seven points in
five games.
Ilya Kovalchuk – Sure, he had 12 points in 12 games before
I left and was considered a top 20 player in all fantasy
leagues. With 10 points in five games since – including
back-to-back hat tricks, Kovalchuk is now considered a top
five or six guy again.
Ray Whitney – After just four points in eight games to
start the year, Whitney had a four-point game just before I
left. Clearly, that wasn't a fluke – and neither was last
season's breakout - as the 35-year-old is on a nine-game point
streak and has 15 points in that span.
Paul Stastny – After starting off with 14 points in seven
games, fantasy owners were ready to christen him as the next
110-point player. He has just five points in nine games since,
leading me to believe that my original projection of him being
a player who puts up 80 to 90 points year in and year out is a
good one. My prediction for this year of the mid-70s is
finally starting to look accurate.
Matt Cullen – With 13 points in 13 games, Cullen was hot
before I left. His five points in four since that time is
making poolies take him a little more seriously. Suddenly, the
former college scoring star is looking as if he will shatter
his career high of 49 points. Every year the Hurricanes seem
to create a fantasy star. Rod Brind'Amour became one after the
lockout, Whitney turned into one last season... could this
year be Cullen's turn?
Jeff Hamilton – Still with the confusing Hurricanes,
Hamilton had 10 points in 12 games before I went off to enjoy
the sun and lots of beer. Coming back to the cold reality of
Canada, I see that Hamilton has also come back to reality with
just two in his last five. Fortunately I traded him in the
Experts League to Gus Katsaros of McKeen's before I left – for
Tom Poti.
Nik Antropov – C'mon. Even Leaf fans couldn't possibly
believe that Nik could continue his 15 points in 12 games
pace! He does look good out there this season, but clearing a
point per game is a little far-fetched for the injury-prone
Kazak. His two points in six contests since then have swung
his point totals to something a little more reasonable.
Andrei Kostitsyn – Before I left, the elder Kostitsyn had
been a healthy scratch in four out of five games and had just
one point on the season. I come back and he has three points
in five contests since. Look for his chemistry with Alexei
Kovalev and Tomas Plekanec to continue for the time being.
Petr Sykora – With 11 points in 12 games, Sykora was a hot
commodity in fantasy circles, particularly with the alluring
possibility that he could play with Sidney Crosby at any given
moment. Just two points in six games later and Sykora's value
is back to that of a 65-point player, although with Crosby
factored in there will always be a lot of upside here to
consider – which will buoy his value all season long.
The Buffalo Sabres – What the hell is going on here? When
I left, the team was 5-5-0 and just having what I would
consider a disappointing start. The Sabres have gone 1-4-1
since then and scoring just eight goals in six games as a
team. This is the stuff that kills poolies, but it is
precisely the time you should be making inquiries on grabbing
Maxim Afinogenov, Tomas Vanek et al. Also when I left,
defenseman Brian Campbell had 11 points in 10 games. He has
just one in six since then. In that span, Derek Roy was a
minus-7 (just two points), Jason Pominville had just a single
point, while Vanek and Afinogenov have just two points each.
Owners who were holding onto their Sabres tightly before I
left are suddenly willing to talk trade.
I have now seen first hand that looking at things through a
10-day window is a great way to pinpoint potential "buy
low/sell high" opportunities.
